Middle East · resolved market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf526b2fbff94ae996818e76c8b54cc99ffbfa0a1a9972a48253ada65e32786f7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,291,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,290,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,291,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 606 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5297…7b99backed Yes	2c	35,476$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.36	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	2c	32,003$785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$785.28	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3335…309ebacked Yes	2c	30,515$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.04	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	+4.0wins	+0.12per pick	20cpaid	+497%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c6a…0b8cbacked Yes	33c	29,328$9,824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,823.72	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.8wins	-0.43per pick	54cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	7c	27,613$2,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,035.45	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c1…39e2backed No	60c	25,000$14,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,049.96	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+26%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	13c	22,447$2,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,925.08	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes	7c	20,000$1,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,314	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No	60c	18,356$11,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,291.51	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	6c	16,210$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	33c	15,668$5,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,119.57	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	6c	15,444$906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$906.28	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	6c	12,647$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.66	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	75c	12,461$9,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,112.53	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eb8…0782backed No	72c	11,883$8,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,283.43	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	1c	10,472$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.42	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes	10c	10,471$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008.25	101	32.7%33 W · 68 L	+10.6wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7752…4df4backed Yes	4c	10,426$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.44	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	17cpaid	+1,019.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes	34c	10,185$3,473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,472.87	113	34.5%39 W · 74 L	-7.5wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes	10c	10,038$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	6c	10,000$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.66	170	18.2%31 W · 139 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	6c	10,000$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.99	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes	9c	9,479$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.69	103	27.2%28 W · 75 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	10c	9,363$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.27	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	9,100$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.7	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes	48c	9,058$4,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,303.36	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4def…f8e8backed Yes	4c	8,009$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.45	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e3…3239backed Yes	42c	7,749$3,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,219.49	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	18c	7,389$1,334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,333.67	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked Yes	8c	7,226$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.46	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	41c	6,647$2,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,716.84	178	39.9%71 W · 107 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	50c	6,607$3,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,299.44	316	49.7%157 W · 159 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16af…12a5backed Yes	16c	6,290$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.22	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+5.2wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes	2c	6,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	142	27.5%39 W · 103 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	38c	6,000$2,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,259.96	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…fccbbacked Yes	8c	5,706$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.14	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	15cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes	45c	5,186$2,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,340.34	136	50%68 W · 68 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	34c	5,156$1,743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,743.21	241	49.4%119 W · 122 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes	42c	5,123$2,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,126.79	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No	70c	5,038$3,537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,501.29	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes	1c	5,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eac…140abacked Yes	8c	5,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.99	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+80.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes	4c	4,921$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.79	85	14.1%12 W · 73 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbb…32afbacked Yes	29c	4,750$1,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,397.4	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…3683backed Yes	1c	4,697$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+656.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	3c	4,632$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.49	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes	4c	4,500$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.3	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+6.4wins	+0.13per pick	38cpaid	+122.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes	47c	4,434$2,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,082	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes	46c	4,242$1,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,967.29	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	5c	4,075$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.57	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc884…e17ebacked Yes	48c	3,977$1,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,908.92	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-39%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	4c	3,705$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.14	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes	44c	3,652$1,614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,614.03	118	59.3%70 W · 48 L	+14.5wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	3,557$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.83	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes	25c	3,537$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.67	160	41.9%67 W · 93 L	+12.3wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes	6c	3,387$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed Yes	18c	3,143$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No	60c	3,045$1,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,205.61	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed No	49c	2,970$1,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,515.33	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No	49c	2,933$1,424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,508.64	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes	39c	2,883$1,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.12	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes	24c	2,800$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.99	149	44.3%66 W · 83 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43fb…5f89backed No	68c	2,640$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840.22	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5d…469ebacked Yes	5c	2,630$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No	66c	2,600$1,711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$888.8	362	27.9%101 W · 261 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes	7c	2,555$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.25	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+6.6wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	37c	2,502$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.81	197	39.1%77 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No	60c	2,500$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	91	39.6%36 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes	14c	2,457$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.16	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	18c	2,425$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.71	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b340backed Yes	3c	2,422$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.86	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes	7c	2,359$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.35	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked No	63c	2,311$1,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$850.84	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	2,290$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.05	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No	42c	2,042$860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,182.21	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a2…a9b1backed Yes	49c	2,030$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1175…64fdbacked Yes	3c	2,024$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes	5c	2,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	+5.4wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	4c	2,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	+6.2wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.42	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	+22.6wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes	46c	2,000$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x606f…1083backed No	61c	2,000$1,220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$779.99	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes	25c	1,951$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.44	110	40%44 W · 66 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd640…480cbacked Yes	5c	1,933$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.36	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes	14c	1,849$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.94	185	31.9%59 W · 126 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No	43c	1,832$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,035.33	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	3c	1,810$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.04	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff8…5fd6backed Yes	18c	1,750$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.5	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.18per pick	21cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ca9…439bbacked No	58c	1,715$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.43	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	58cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6056…c27cbacked Yes	15c	1,700$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.99	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bdb…9080backed Yes	7c	1,689$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	6c	1,658$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.49	123	25.2%31 W · 92 L	+15.2wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	57c	1,655$943 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.49	205	49.8%102 W · 103 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes	57c	1,625$923 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$923.05	92	50%46 W · 46 L	+10.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	15c	1,600$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	13c	1,600$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.2	486	30.5%148 W · 338 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes	5c	1,588$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.4	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes	16c	1,553$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.11	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes	7c	1,500$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.03	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event