Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27182c8b13f2a6284754660cbb3c6350a04f7aa4afe04d24dad481947014d90d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,783,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,679,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,783,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 0c | 2,400,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 9c | 107,575$9,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,204.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 61c | 67,002$40,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,920.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 12c | 65,858$8,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,030.67 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 59c | 52,052$30,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,952.91 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 42c | 45,872$19,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,649.96 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 1c | 43,405$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.43 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 5c | 41,905$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.22 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 3c | 40,465$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.48 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 54c | 37,627$20,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,158.25 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 34,900$6,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,911.62 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 79c | 30,641$24,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,410 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 12c | 28,221$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450.76 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 44c | 25,994$11,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,417.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed No | 37c | 25,000$9,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,649.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 73c | 24,126$17,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,633.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 41c | 22,206$9,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,133.31 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 5c | 21,922$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 56c | 21,723$12,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,246.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 18c | 21,349$3,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,873.19 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 5c | 20,983$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…f3c7backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 66c | 18,482$12,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,365.89 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 11c | 17,993$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.64 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 67c | 17,462$11,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,809.82 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 57c | 15,069$8,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,512.99 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 14,964$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 34c | 14,887$5,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,756.13 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 67c | 14,000$9,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,669.18 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…6347backed Yes | 50c | 13,896$6,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,960 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 79c | 13,720$10,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.34 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 13c | 13,656$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.51 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 55c | 13,000$7,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,867.46 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed Yes | 26c | 12,189$3,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,198.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 2c | 12,188$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.17 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 60c | 12,011$7,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,161.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb688…6862backed Yes | 7c | 11,245$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 55c | 10,890$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890.07 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 12c | 10,498$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.75 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 75c | 10,014$7,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.91 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…8f75backed No | 73c | 10,006$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 6c | 9,477$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.63 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 29c | 9,368$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.68 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 34c | 9,184$3,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,136.06 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 74c | 9,000$6,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,653.07 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 30c | 8,864$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677.89 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 52c | 8,685$4,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,505.73 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 10c | 8,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.99 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 60c | 8,100$4,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,894.93 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 50c | 8,000$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,965.62 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 50c | 8,000$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 1c | 7,810$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 16c | 7,800$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…0c87backed Yes | 68c | 7,782$5,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,298.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 55c | 7,689$4,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,211.99 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked Yes | 33c | 7,528$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 17c | 7,500$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb749…cd19backed No | 79c | 7,433$5,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 4c | 7,400$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.19 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 26c | 7,378$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.9 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 63c | 7,262$4,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,547.97 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 34c | 7,100$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 6c | 7,083$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked Yes | 57c | 7,027$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 20c | 6,802$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.94 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 73c | 6,791$4,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.9 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 64c | 6,755$4,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.11 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 78c | 6,717$5,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.08 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 80c | 6,607$5,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed No | 51c | 6,500$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,210 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed Yes | 16c | 6,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 52c | 6,441$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.59 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 47c | 6,402$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,402.48 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 1c | 6,165$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed Yes | 9c | 6,140$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 25c | 6,096$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.07 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x231b…73dfbacked Yes | 10c | 5,674$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 75c | 5,579$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.13 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed No | 44c | 5,567$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 45c | 5,565$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.05 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…a7a0backed No | 67c | 5,511$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,414$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…c18bbacked Yes | 58c | 5,353$3,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,121.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 10c | 5,257$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.98 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…5975backed Yes | 9c | 5,183$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 15c | 5,159$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 41c | 5,127$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.92 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…0b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 5,089$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.