Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf46f7d20f438857da0f20108fee94c8955137b2b4eca7e16af91d6726bf25fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $532,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $524,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 67,230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 3c | 25,093$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.35 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 1c | 22,546$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.01 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 20,415$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.65 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 3c | 16,517$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.7 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 1c | 15,144$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.85 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 2c | 13,123$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.67 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,550$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 2c | 10,561$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.81 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 3c | 10,449$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 10,050$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.87 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 1c | 5,955$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 2c | 5,720$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 2c | 5,052$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,344$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…71dabacked Yes | 2c | 4,092$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 3c | 4,001$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…ba00backed Yes | 5c | 3,779$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 3c | 3,545$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 1c | 3,199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 3,110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…4df4backed Yes | 5c | 2,692$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +1,019.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 2,010$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed Yes | 2c | 1,995$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 1c | 1,810$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,631$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,550$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 3c | 1,535$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,425$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,424$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 4c | 1,253$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 1,047$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd6…3a41backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…9725backed Yes | 3c | 962.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 3c | 858.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 2c | 794.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 3c | 618.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Yes | 4c | 473.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…273ebacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…d307backed Yes | 4c | 392.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 5c | 336$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.