Middle East · resolved market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724a93f3e0ed0a6c83d2b4f2bc60839b39a92cc2c7cbac0169447f48d72537ab

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,233,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,317,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,233,391 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,059 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfc2f…10c7backed No	24c	193,117$46,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46,236.59	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes	63c	75,783$47,578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28,205.27	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	67c	43,835$29,414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,421.4	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No	20c	40,023$7,913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,912.99	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	77c	38,783$30,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,733.79	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No	33c	29,812$9,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,910.46	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-9.9wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	63c	28,900$18,116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,783.84	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed No	16c	27,287$4,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,265.42	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No	44c	22,298$9,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,807.95	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	69c	19,726$13,691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,035.7	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a33…3a4fbacked Yes	65c	19,079$12,405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,673.94	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf567…d3efbacked Yes	60c	14,664$8,812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,852.3	8	100%8 W · 0 L	+4.1wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+138.3%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No	34c	13,760$4,648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,648.39	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-5.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x95bf…e00bbacked Yes	79c	13,655$10,792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,862.79	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-22%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes	66c	11,779$7,746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,033.46	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0238…eb0bbacked No	39c	11,536$4,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,502.1	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No	38c	10,778$4,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,051.5	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes	67c	9,284$6,176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,108.02	155	41.9%65 W · 90 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	76c	8,206$6,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,977.61	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1f…907dbacked No	41c	7,184$2,915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,915.16	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-8.4wins	-0.31per pick	57cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked No	30c	7,012$2,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,070	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-38%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	70c	5,768$4,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,731.6	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No	20c	5,570$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.57	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd66…b02abacked No	41c	5,322$2,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,182.02	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb58…0160backed Yes	80c	5,013$4,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.81	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa30e…49d5backed Yes	80c	5,000$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ec…5f73backed No	16c	4,514$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.97	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4214…6c68backed No	34c	4,226$1,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,431.11	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No	39c	4,208$1,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,636.13	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No	14c	4,190$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604	179	29.1%52 W · 127 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No	37c	4,050$1,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,508.73	91	39.6%36 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5287…3a16backed Yes	62c	3,919$2,425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,494.47	14	92.9%13 W · 1 L	+8.1wins	+0.58per pick	35cpaid	+209.2%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes	55c	3,762$2,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,691.13	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+9.1wins	+0.25per pick	36cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1a5b…a840backed Yes	72c	3,728$2,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.95	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+44%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked No	33c	3,350$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.37	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No	42c	3,289$1,380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,379.99	241	49.4%119 W · 122 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…d7cebacked Yes	58c	3,270$1,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,369.83	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+5.1wins	+0.42per pick	33cpaid	+142.4%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No	12c	3,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes	80c	2,991$2,384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.82	173	47.4%82 W · 91 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No	32c	2,979$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.23	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…869ebacked Yes	64c	2,867$1,832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,035.05	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	68c	2,840$1,932 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$908.12	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No	35c	2,800$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No	32c	2,700$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871	100	45%45 W · 55 L	+8.8wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes	67c	2,680$1,806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$874.19	253	39.5%100 W · 153 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No	27c	2,546$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.78	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	28c	2,499$687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.33	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes	66c	2,487$1,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$848.81	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes	68c	2,473$1,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$793.08	166	50%83 W · 83 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	21c	2,419$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.53	316	49.7%157 W · 159 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb1…4547backed No	28c	2,412$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No	17c	2,331$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.07	206	17%35 W · 171 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	62c	2,307$1,430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$876.66	124	32.3%40 W · 84 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked No	22c	2,212$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.66	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.24per pick	37cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes	72c	2,175$1,566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.91	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e1…3b95backed Yes	75c	2,160$1,612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$548.61	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebad…00babacked Yes	72c	2,022$1,446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.59	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	29cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes	80c	2,000$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbebe…72e1backed No	42c	2,000$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$840	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	16c	1,992$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.7	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked No	41c	1,881$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$770.99	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226a…258abacked No	41c	1,879$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.52	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+116.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes	62c	1,873$1,161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.74	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b01…5b36backed No	32c	1,758$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No	36c	1,755$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.3	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No	12c	1,714$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.91	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf192…6ee2backed Yes	61c	1,681$1,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.2	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+5.7wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+80.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes	77c	1,676$1,285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390.81	80	45%36 W · 44 L	+6.0wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No	34c	1,500$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-34%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes	61c	1,500$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	+29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c65…d60dbacked Yes	80c	1,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	57c	1,500$860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfcd…009ebacked No	14c	1,500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes	65c	1,500$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530	110	40%44 W · 66 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes	74c	1,500$1,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.99	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+111.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No	36c	1,471$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.85	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf208…5eefbacked Yes	74c	1,438$1,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.88	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e25…28d1backed Yes	78c	1,408$1,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No	5c	1,355$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.15	162	31.5%51 W · 111 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	37c	1,299$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.71	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Yes	61c	1,298$796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.29	67	38.8%26 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	19c	1,285$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.33	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No	28c	1,273$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.83	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed No	35c	1,272$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.32	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes	66c	1,250$830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.61	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1583…bddebacked Yes	65c	1,243$802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.02	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.7wins	-0.27per pick	67cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	11c	1,243$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.01	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked No	11c	1,230$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.32	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No	36c	1,229$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.44	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed No	39c	1,227$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.5	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed No	36c	1,225$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.88	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-5.8wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes	76c	1,201$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.94	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes	73c	1,113$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.72	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c2…93d0backed No	25c	1,103$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.54	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No	21c	1,080$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.3	113	34.5%39 W · 74 L	-7.5wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes	65c	1,050$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.98	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…ae75backed No	24c	1,013$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.79	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No	25c	1,008$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.96	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed No	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event