Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37428e14d903dd0d5a243131a60b1dd4af3b58caa75308589d4f88b2475a028e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 15,919$10,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,735.47 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 69c | 15,830$10,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,936.68 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 41c | 12,000$4,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,933.14 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 36c | 11,175$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,018.33 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 41c | 9,170$3,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.98 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 62c | 6,713$4,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.34 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed No | 32c | 6,357$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.21 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 64c | 6,103$3,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.41 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 60c | 6,033$3,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.32 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 36c | 5,737$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.74 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 37c | 5,108$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.99 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 4,884$3,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.51 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 42c | 4,119$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.91 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 61c | 4,031$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.38 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 32c | 4,000$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 62c | 3,441$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 79c | 3,246$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.48 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 63c | 3,058$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.25 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 58c | 2,940$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.71 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 55c | 2,818$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.28 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 38c | 2,817$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 33c | 2,564$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.37 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed No | 41c | 2,400$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 62c | 2,087$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.71 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 38c | 1,864$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.97 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,829$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 55c | 1,717$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 74c | 1,650$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.15 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 75c | 1,527$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.56 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed No | 41c | 1,515$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 41c | 1,428$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.41 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed Yes | 64c | 1,254$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.9 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 1,236$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.33 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6acabacked Yes | 63c | 1,201$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…5583backed No | 58c | 1,196$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 70c | 1,126$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.67 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 68c | 1,011$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,007$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.9 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 55c | 1,002$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 64c | 995.34$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 69c | 971.94$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.31 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…8084backed Yes | 52c | 952.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 28c | 899.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked No | 35c | 894.37$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed No | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 62c | 822.61$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.08 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 78c | 800$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed Yes | 64c | 799.95$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 60c | 738.56$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.09 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 68c | 735.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…ba04backed Yes | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…730abacked Yes | 68c | 730.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 58c | 720.65$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.77 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…6edebacked No | 41c | 699.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed Yes | 76c | 691.06$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.04 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 647.29$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.94 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 27c | 639.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 42c | 637.23$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…428fbacked No | 42c | 616.79$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…2a24backed Yes | 65c | 616.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 58c | 606$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.52 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Yes | 62c | 602.12$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked No | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 34c | 574.22$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.08 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 64c | 566.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 62c | 535$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 59c | 509.62$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.62 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 56c | 509.21$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 55c | 508.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.75 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 70c | 500$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 59c | 498.67$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 32c | 495.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 44c | 495.27$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.35 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 50c | 495.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.19 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked No | 45c | 459.53$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 62c | 440$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x923b…e08abacked No | 42c | 434.43$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…2898backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked No | 31c | 427.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 40c | 425.31$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.38 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 415.6$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…f468backed Yes | 74c | 406$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked Yes | 65c | 405$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked No | 42c | 400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed Yes | 65c | 400$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed Yes | 70c | 380$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 62c | 377.16$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.61 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 53c | 376.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.67 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked No | 36c | 370.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 57c | 350$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 58c | 347.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.