TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88e2…7489

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
127
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst MLB at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT8633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,083Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,082.78
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$696
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+89.9%+$177.07
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$849Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$849.05
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.7
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$593Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$592.9
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,325
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$8,909Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,909.4
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,194Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$806
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,473Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,473.45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,118.51
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.63
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,026Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,025.74
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,226.9%+$1,641.09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31,032Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+103.9%+$32,254.52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16,646Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+723.2%+$120,381.56
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27,764Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+166.1%+$46,128.69
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$953Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$2,449.44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,351.93
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$1,307.69
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$1,920
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.28
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.31
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$1,480
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2025, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-58.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
MLB — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Twins vs. Dodgersbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Astros vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Brewers vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
Cardinals vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.5
White Sox vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Athletics vs. Rangersbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Giants vs. Bravesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Angels vs. Metsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
Reds vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$105.99
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
Red Sox vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$33
Padres vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$112
Tigers vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$7,195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$4,025.31
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.87
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$740
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.82
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$9,416Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,416.35
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$859Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$307.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18,166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18,165.97
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,077Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+93.7%+$1,009.55
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11,715Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+87.8%+$10,285
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,330
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,023Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$2,057.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.