Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead3a70835f8d191b7d2e7473ea0fca6bd7c7385e855f0d6b7bfe0f73d647396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 49c | 4,462$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.94 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 2,733$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…6408backed Yes | 62c | 1,114$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 71c | 1,055$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.86 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…4d98backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…3ca0backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 39c | 864.38$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.38 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…e1c7backed No | 40c | 815$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 599.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ab…f4b8backed No | 40c | 505$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…5e93backed No | 40c | 495$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 44c | 453.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 24c | 416.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…b7fdbacked Yes | 55c | 341.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 317.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.63 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 55c | 289.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…7b6bbacked Yes | 43c | 286.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 49c | 248.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 44c | 233.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 50c | 217.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 42c | 208$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 22c | 185$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 180.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…abafbacked No | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 69c | 174.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes | 58c | 171.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…21c6backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 146.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 21c | 130.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 106.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 55c | 98.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 85.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked No | 36c | 84.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b7…ff89backed Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 53c | 70.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…9c44backed No | 69c | 65.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 63c | 50.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…aeb1backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 58c | 37.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 58c | 34.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…3779backed Yes | 59c | 34.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…3e5dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…b98ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 25?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.