Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5dfdc743620e0e0277387439fa67369dbb9c4150b2d792a665575a84f8a8697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 41c | 6,158$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.83 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 16c | 2,515$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.39 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,391$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed Yes | 67c | 1,402$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 1,029$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 901.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 79c | 719.65$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 29c | 696.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.81 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 2c | 640$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 32c | 624.17$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.05 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 317.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…6408backed Yes | 38c | 263.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked Yes | 5c | 231$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 221.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 19c | 208$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 11c | 188.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…7a93backed No | 66c | 144.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 16c | 122.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 57c | 110.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 29c | 95.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…6a3fbacked No | 69c | 84.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…e4d5backed Yes | 30c | 83.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 57c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 41c | 77.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…9831backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed No | 58c | 51.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…484cbacked No | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 58c | 34.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 25?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.