Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f21e150af25d51f64af2485dc78bd91fea28e41c08ce537424e52361bbf62f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,086$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 30c | 2,632$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.03 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 39c | 1,300$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…0a3abacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…83ccbacked No | 76c | 989$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…1019backed Yes | 24c | 985$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…7ab0backed No | 76c | 800$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 67c | 626.39$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.74 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 3c | 623.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 34c | 457$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 427.41$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…e75bbacked Yes | 8c | 395.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 40c | 328.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 40c | 287$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 283.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 75c | 274.21$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 68c | 254.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 55c | 205.59$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…235ebacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 52c | 192.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 46c | 192.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 61c | 135.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 59c | 123.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes | 43c | 115.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 34c | 113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 45c | 111.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8692…6856backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 106.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 36c | 57.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…33babacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…261abacked Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 65c | 44.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 56c | 43.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked Yes | 49c | 40.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c4…43c9backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 34c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…f037backed Yes | 43c | 35.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 37c | 35.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…f202backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 49c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…a207backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 25?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.