TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb288…fa0f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
182
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 63 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT4153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$23.06
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$99.44
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$18.97
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.59
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+59.6%+$23.83
Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+43.7%+$17.47
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+113.6%+$45.45
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.79
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Soraya Martinez Ferrada win the 2025 Montreal mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+37%+$9.72
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.78
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.1
Will Poilievre regain a seat in Canadian Parliament in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.8
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$28.4
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+203%+$47.71
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more than 72%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$12.49
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$196
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+427.8%+$470.57
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3363.6%21 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.26
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+61.6%+$12.31
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$82
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+217.2%+$43.44
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+270.4%+$54.07
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+125.3%+$67.66
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$333.91
Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.14
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+53.8%+$21.54
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+125.9%+$170.84
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$62
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$17
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+136.7%+$231.02
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+32.3%+$56.2
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.84
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+128.1%+$432.95
35% Canada tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+155.3%+$25.01
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$14.91
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+162.8%+$75.55
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will AG Blanche meet with Ghislaine Maxwell by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+58.8%+$18.82
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+157.7%+$29.97
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT2774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+191.1%+$35.89
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$500.71
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$119.48
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.6%+$249.68
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+84%+$25.21
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$30.99
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.1%+$19.05
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+177.8%+$71.11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+78.6%+$31.43
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+77.4%+$61.92
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$20.43
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.18
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.02
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.81
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 25-27 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$50.85
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 22-24 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$32.54
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$92
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST2326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+100.6%+$20.11
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+827.8%+$206.94
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+150%+$30
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.29
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$10.16
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.8
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $128-139m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16M?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $78m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+158.8%+$32.86
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will 'Bring Her Back' gross more than $6.5m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+129.2%+$23.78
Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $1.2-1.5m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $67m and 72m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.63
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.05
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
All 23 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.56
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$20.99
Islanders vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Canadiens vs. Jetsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Canucks vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+56.3%+$5.63
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Canadiens vs. Panthersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+102%+$10.2
NHL Playoffs: Capitals vs. Canadiens (To Advance)backed Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.6
Blackhawks vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.02
Canadiens vs. Islandersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+68.6%+$142.63
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$65.99
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$78
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$2.92
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+115.9%+$231.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+25%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.