Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ed0b4bf2172794535354f3d754598c85d8bb0fadcc2548268c35fc5db84c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 16c | 6,859$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.74 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 18c | 6,254$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.38 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 12c | 5,452$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.75 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 5,076$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.69 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes | 6c | 3,629$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 2,082$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.85 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 25c | 2,079$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.77 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 24c | 2,046$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 19c | 1,994$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.57 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x196e…e2ecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,898$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 11c | 1,806$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.81 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed Yes | 38c | 1,720$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,715$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 23c | 1,492$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.65 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 17c | 1,182$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,057$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 2c | 937.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 17c | 924.95$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 79c | 858.36$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 39c | 767.24$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 15c | 753.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.92 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 702.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 18c | 672.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 617.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 26c | 518.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 31c | 479.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 455$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 25c | 447.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 9c | 440.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 24c | 400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 12c | 361.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 27c | 300.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…5158backed Yes | 21c | 272.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…a74fbacked Yes | 22c | 252$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 14c | 245.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 245.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 218.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 9c | 212.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 9c | 212.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 15c | 209$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 14c | 206.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…4c90backed Yes | 25c | 189.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 24c | 189.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 69c | 184$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 30c | 168.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 34c | 150.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…31edbacked Yes | 11c | 146.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 30c | 146.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf49e…468ebacked Yes | 37c | 133.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb599…d428backed Yes | 42c | 120.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 118.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 13c | 108.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 24c | 100.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…322fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d9…fb6dbacked No | 73c | 76.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…8aefbacked Yes | 37c | 53.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…18c4backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 37c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 77c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…9786backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed No | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…f165backed No | 72c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1876…d671backed No | 70c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…28febacked No | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…bfd5backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592b…6fbbbacked No | 74c | 14.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?this page
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla before September 16 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 16–18 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 19-21 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 22-24 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 25-27 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.