Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5252e1eff61bb24aead65206b9a03c782a1779783126e098b718739f5fbcc9d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 59c | 5,241$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.74 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 24c | 3,970$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.83 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 2,860$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.33 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked No | 8c | 2,800$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 29c | 2,500$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.49 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 66c | 2,498$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed Yes | 34c | 2,381$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 47c | 1,933$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.91 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 68c | 1,830$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.82 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 38c | 1,662$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.65 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 76c | 1,658$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.44 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 29c | 1,383$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 50c | 1,314$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.22 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 26c | 1,293$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 48c | 1,205$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…3eefbacked No | 19c | 1,191$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 6c | 1,114$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 42c | 978.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed No | 71c | 792$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 76c | 779.11$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed No | 50c | 737.38$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked Yes | 77c | 695.06$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 56c | 619.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.89 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 27c | 599.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 52c | 571.89$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.61 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 544.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 54c | 500$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2497backed No | 33c | 467.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 55c | 461.82$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 457.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…ae86backed No | 55c | 448.15$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 64c | 439.33$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed No | 56c | 430.72$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 28c | 422.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 71c | 408.7$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 53c | 397.62$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…9032backed Yes | 67c | 372.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 49c | 370.67$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 66c | 332$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed No | 36c | 327.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 7c | 324.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 48c | 302.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 71c | 295$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 293.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 65c | 290$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…a74fbacked No | 33c | 277.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 51c | 270.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 74c | 251.47$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…31debacked No | 7c | 234.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 33c | 234.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed No | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 67c | 222.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…bfd6backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 65c | 206.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…68d1backed No | 30c | 199.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…c925backed Yes | 10c | 195.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +875.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 19c | 191.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked Yes | 79c | 189.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked No | 20c | 184.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 24c | 172.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 51c | 147.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…65c7backed Yes | 36c | 133.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 12c | 132.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1917backed Yes | 16c | 127$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 27c | 121.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 20c | 115.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 10c | 115.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked Yes | 54c | 112.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…05d1backed No | 38c | 104.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…e39fbacked Yes | 70c | 102.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x492c…16d1backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8107…98d0backed Yes | 46c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…f86dbacked No | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…fe33backed No | 37c | 80.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed No | 34c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…446abacked Yes | 56c | 68.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…61acbacked No | 32c | 62.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…4853backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes | 71c | 45.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…5d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…34fdbacked Yes | 49c | 37.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…caf3backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…27ccbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…1c77backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla before September 16 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 16–18 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 19-21 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 22-24 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 25-27 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.