Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 22-24 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895d14ca263bf09bf3f4a51ee3aad9a40fe1f86996214c4824bc3be2a953369e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,586$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 2c | 6,962$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,150$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.03 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,063$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb599…d428backed Yes | 2c | 2,315$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,567$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 1,263$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 1c | 1,236$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 30c | 1,022$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.13 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,016$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2a…6074backed Yes | 3c | 1,012$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 14c | 770.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 23c | 670.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 12c | 574.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 9c | 494.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 78c | 386$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 328.8$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 310.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 75c | 303.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…5a96backed Yes | 4c | 296.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 276.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 69c | 267.33$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 23c | 252.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 77c | 230.44$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 73c | 189.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 13c | 160.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 152.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 73c | 120.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 22-24 ET?this page
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla before September 16 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 16–18 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 19-21 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 25-27 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.