TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe72…cb10

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
219
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT6030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$144
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$397.24
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$818Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$817.66
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$870Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+115.8%+$1,007.73
Will 50PLUS be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30.72
Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$78.22
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$274.07
Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$169.99
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+61.3%+$36.29
Will BBB be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$95
Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$16.94
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$5,002Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+133.2%+$6,664.61
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$891Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$890.75
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,756Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$1,756.33
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 65% and 70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$139.22
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+512.2%+$2,510
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$761Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+176.9%+$1,345.08
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$553.5
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$51.71
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+2,400%+$959.99
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$1,012.04
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$2,201.9
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$51.8
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST4843.8%21 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,046Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,046.4
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$865Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$864.9
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 searched song on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,580Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+32.3%+$511.12
Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,177.27
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$92.01
Will: Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$205.49
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,512Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,512.18
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100.03
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$462.07
Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+81.8%+$58.5
Will a U.S. government shutdown be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$144
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$184
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+303.6%+$388.2
Will Bianca Censori be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25%+$200
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11.33
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+671.2%+$698.87
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$612Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$612
Will Saif Ali Khan be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$715Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$715.25
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+188.8%+$1,419.35
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$339.27
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.22
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,970Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+30.7%+$1,830.07
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21,430Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+83.9%+$17,986.34
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,917Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,917.45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$728Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+187.9%+$1,367.79
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,021Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,020.82
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+213.3%+$4,682.13
Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$763.9
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$4,795Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+83%+$3,977.5
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+42.9%+$600
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,995Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+33.9%+$1,355.44
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+75.4%+$860
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$2,450
Will the US strike Nigeria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$53.37
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$614.56
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$865Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$864.51
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+316.7%+$1,519.99
Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$16.41
Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,960Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+35.1%+$1,039.99
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$7,760Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+32.3%+$2,502.95
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$522.69
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$136.78
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$185.74
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$106.35
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$328.89
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$22.53
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$87.21
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$270
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$215
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+25%+$53.49
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.99
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$18.64
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$219
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,690Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+78.1%+$2,100.17
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$419.79
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$815Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+206.7%+$1,685
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+42.9%+$46.8
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+61.5%+$411.91
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25%+$100
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+159%+$380.6
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,622Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+27.4%+$444.76
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,348Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+62.5%+$842.43
Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$223.11
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,747Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,747.36
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+37%+$662.7
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,080.31
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,615Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+72.6%+$1,172.68
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,854Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+238.6%+$6,809.74
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,722Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+248.8%+$4,285.19
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$248
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+83.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+104.2%+$255.16
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 27–30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100.57
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 30–33%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$84
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+38.6%+$299.76
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$87.78
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+1,011.1%+$183.88
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,300
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 10:00 PM and 10:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+100%+$100
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+25%+$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$338.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.