TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$605,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$550,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $605,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24be…6e89backed No1c79,092$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d5…0a45backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf07f…f2b5backed No0c32,266$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No8c23,815$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.342941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34d…e48fbacked No0c19,601$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9968…2187backed No0c13,234$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f2…cf95backed No0c12,644$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ab…27cabacked Yes46c9,780$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,281.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x323b…4598backed No1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked No0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-75.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes60c6,648$3,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.682948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x550d…8d96backed No54c5,400$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,915.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb96c…35c9backed No0c4,490$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbd…f9b5backed No54c4,380$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,706$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.981,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed No1c3,064$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No2c3,015$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.39435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No0c2,414$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No42c2,355$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.273447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No67c1,287$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.94843.8%21 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes50c1,202$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.7946038.9%179 W · 281 L-31.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x38fe…2b7cbacked Yes31c1,028$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes64c1,009$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+100.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bab…5fa0backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x528e…1d21backed Yes61c999.98$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.491145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed No40c891.8$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.091526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fc6…81aabacked Yes57c879.97$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No53c827.81$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.198041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes43c760.71$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.231735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes42c702.03$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.62722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5a…ad63backed No2c699.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No60c644.09$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad6…c43ebacked Yes60c559.38$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes45c552.25$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.266439.1%25 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c506.64$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes79c476.02$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.752133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed No5c391.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No55c383.08$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9315452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No16c383$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7518311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes51c369.13$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3418323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No52c356.27$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.387852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes42c355.29$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.673043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes43c348.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.982646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9118…c706backed Yes31c318.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f7…1e75backed Yes46c313.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No8c296.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.844325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes48c273.21$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.211225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes69c271.39$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.04850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ac…a576backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No41c255.05$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.784052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf302…e00abacked Yes40c247.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…9a59backed No43c233.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4a…fff2backed No14c232$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No47c219.15$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.199850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfb…1f69backed Yes52c217.96$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.981735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5819…087fbacked Yes42c215.63$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.632339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes67c205.44$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes65c205$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.752240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed Yes36c200.1$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1223342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…f70ebacked Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a8f8backed No29c198.15$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-78.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed No71c194$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.45825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x103d…b4a9backed Yes42c190.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0238…c051backed Yes38c190.05$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No37c185.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.683740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabf2…45c5backed Yes55c180.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes57c179.76$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.481030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f6f…d3fcbacked Yes58c174.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e18…f10bbacked Yes46c172.34$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No44c171.9$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762825%7 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes26c165.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.251127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes29c164.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…d68ebacked Yes56c158$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.521145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No36c154.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b76…5d99backed Yes65c154.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eba…ffa3backed No41c154.25$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.945151%26 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.859447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x14bd…60a5backed No42c151.9$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes39c150$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.52050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35a4…17e3backed Yes54c147.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x719d…1b78backed Yes35c143.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes39c139.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.291643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd151…07d2backed Yes76c130.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes43c122.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.911631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed No33c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No74c119$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.062638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes42c119$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.022857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No58c119$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.022839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No59c116.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.968551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1862…9f15backed Yes35c114.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.231127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No57c110$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes43c110$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.