AI · resolved market
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a67303c3a139fca2703dffc94f40faa9cf2fb3497fd3c93773fcfb6cae256a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 9c | 8,438$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.77 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 11c | 4,079$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.07 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,875$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,781$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 10c | 1,012$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 17c | 915.76$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 18c | 738.87$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 12c | 365$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 312.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed Yes | 12c | 303.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…c54fbacked Yes | 15c | 272.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 221.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…1f69backed Yes | 17c | 220$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 79c | 183$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 14c | 148.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 15c | 137.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 12c | 122$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…1b82backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 85.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 20c | 72.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 19c | 63.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…9f6cbacked No | 80c | 21.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed No | 76c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?this page
- Will a U.S. government shutdown be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will a major Kamchatka earthquake be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will an Air India aviation disaster be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will the DeepSeek R1 launch be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will the GPT-5 launch be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will the Liberation Day tariff policy be the #1 searched news on Google this year?No won
- Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.