TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will a U.S. government shutdown be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,777 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,800$88 inLost-$87.711,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c3,462$22 inLost-$22.3918311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes5c3,000$144 inLost-$1444843.8%21 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes3c2,653$78 inLost-$78.267636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e70…0004backed Yes5c2,193$109 inLost-$109.4870%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c1,903$98 inLost-$98.162674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes1c1,712$17 inLost-$17.123231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a9c…2aeebacked Yes7c1,514$106 inLost-$105.641428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x103d…b4a9backed Yes3c1,008$30 inLost-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes5c868.61$44 inLost-$441729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189f…11cdbacked Yes5c853.64$41 inLost-$41.471010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-76.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f24…2cc3backed Yes7c762.66$53 inLost-$52.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed Yes4c670.04$30 inLost-$301526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes5c469.46$24 inLost-$23.661323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+92.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd025…c876backed Yes9c228.62$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb179…a6d1backed Yes9c222.42$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ef…1f68backed Yes9c219.78$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes9c200$18 inLost-$183339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes9c127.94$12 inLost-$11.51220%0 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…506cbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes29c50$15 inLost-$14.56439.1%25 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No71c50$36 inWon+$14.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.