TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2a67…506c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+70.8%+$28.32
Will a U.S. government shutdown be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+26.1%+$62.55
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+81.8%+$163.64
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+213.7%+$85.47
All 12 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$14.05
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will JetBlue Airways (JBLU) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.95
Will MSCI (MSCI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Will United Parcel Service (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+50.7%+$50.75
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+73.8%+$29.52
Will there be no coalition by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+117.4%+$117.39
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$95.83
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: DENK vs BBBbacked BBB · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+37%+$9.25
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: D66 vs VVDbacked D66 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+122.8%+$24.56
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$142.11
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$515
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+35.1%+$14.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$132.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.