World Politics · resolved market
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830eb792fa2f2a591b5a0610a76400f80228629105f4f5896434be777665265c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,650,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,306,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,650,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 55c | 106,831$59,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,025.75 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,006$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb800…a787backed Yes | 0c | 26,416$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed Yes | 28c | 25,413$7,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,114.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…03e7backed Yes | 0c | 19,006$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…027cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,511$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 17,113$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…ac25backed Yes | 0c | 16,610$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…048ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,017$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 51c | 13,681$6,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750.4 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…5073backed Yes | 0c | 12,750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes | 24c | 10,858$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.57 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7be7backed Yes | 25c | 10,538$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.56 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 49c | 9,887$4,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,007.84 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…02d0backed Yes | 0c | 9,248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…8aebbacked Yes | 0c | 9,199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…f404backed Yes | 0c | 9,199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b37…57b2backed Yes | 0c | 9,119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…8173backed Yes | 0c | 8,899$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…505fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…cf8cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…59aebacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…d6ddbacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b4…1bbbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b37ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…99b4backed Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…567fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…92b6backed Yes | 0c | 8,899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…1dc9backed Yes | 0c | 8,776$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…a19bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,553$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…f80cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,442$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…a721backed Yes | 0c | 8,442$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…95f9backed No | 72c | 8,439$6,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…dd19backed Yes | 0c | 8,353$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…f64dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,347$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…d637backed Yes | 0c | 8,347$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 8,318$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…4512backed Yes | 0c | 8,171$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa47…3ccabacked Yes | 0c | 7,505$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…9347backed Yes | 0c | 7,241$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 7,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Yes | 1c | 6,272$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…feb9backed Yes | 0c | 5,455$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…65a3backed Yes | 0c | 5,455$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…f02dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,385$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 5,359$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…065bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,349$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 40c | 5,321$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.26 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…d1acbacked Yes | 2c | 5,314$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…45c7backed Yes | 0c | 5,224$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 57c | 5,089$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…cf44backed Yes | 0c | 5,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ef…c3aabacked Yes | 0c | 5,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…b3ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2746…ac8fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,040$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…becdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,040$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…5d96backed Yes | 0c | 4,737$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afa…e5abbacked Yes | 0c | 4,712$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c17…bc09backed Yes | 0c | 4,680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,613$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…4494backed Yes | 0c | 4,354$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…22efbacked Yes | 0c | 4,354$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb801…0755backed Yes | 0c | 4,268$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,263$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 59c | 4,226$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c1…70a3backed Yes | 0c | 4,116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e9…3afabacked Yes | 0c | 3,949$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,932$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…933ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,903$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0350…2318backed Yes | 0c | 3,849$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,764$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af7…b768backed Yes | 0c | 3,721$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5f…2ce6backed Yes | 0c | 3,536$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…8d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,439$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…ab67backed Yes | 65c | 3,428$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 50c | 3,350$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.38 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…bb96backed Yes | 0c | 3,346$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,281$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.76 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,256$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e7…c36ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,029$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fa…02f4backed Yes | 0c | 2,945$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…53fbbacked Yes | 60c | 2,844$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,767$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,749$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.38 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…8cfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,661$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 40c | 2,607$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.74 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,587$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 59c | 2,273$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.24 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 41c | 2,246$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.07 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,085$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…34c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,069$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…a9e8backed No | 45c | 2,053$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 64c | 1,883$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.9 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4039…ef7cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,835$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 33c | 1,827$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.05 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 73c | 1,782$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.97 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,768$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,704$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.41 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…323cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,596$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 4c | 1,540$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?this page
- Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.