TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,126,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,126,491 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes0c94,124$94 inLost-$94.12230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…3ca7backed Yes0c78,916$79 inLost-$78.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a5…3531backed Yes0c62,347$62 inLost-$62.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c52,063$52 inLost-$52.06254%1 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-93.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a8…aba9backed Yes0c52,063$52 inLost-$52.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c07…dc98backed Yes0c43,146$43 inLost-$43.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb8…d231backed Yes0c43,146$43 inLost-$43.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7191…9a72backed Yes0c39,646$40 inLost-$39.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd70a…baf2backed Yes0c36,255$36 inLost-$36.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b26…a4adbacked Yes0c36,225$36 inLost-$36.2330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…317bbacked Yes0c35,770$36 inLost-$35.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…4dd5backed Yes0c35,765$36 inLost-$35.7740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f81…ad40backed Yes0c35,720$36 inLost-$35.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a3…7888backed Yes0c32,318$32 inLost-$32.3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c30,994$31 inLost-$30.994440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7dd…8533backed Yes0c27,627$28 inLost-$27.6340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dc…10f1backed Yes0c27,627$28 inLost-$27.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf04…dce0backed Yes0c27,127$27 inLost-$27.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6231…3026backed Yes0c25,150$25 inLost-$25.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd071…92ccbacked Yes0c23,670$24 inLost-$23.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7667…e90dbacked Yes0c23,392$23 inLost-$23.3960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9f…fb03backed Yes0c17,160$17 inLost-$17.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes0c12,859$13 inLost-$12.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc904…9877backed Yes0c10,910$11 inLost-$10.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…3db9backed Yes0c10,180$10 inLost-$10.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1def…c0fcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c8,823$10 inLost-$10.494521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.