World Politics · resolved market
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc11dd6459a3a82ab0563a8fd7b76a5f2249c2607a9430ed66f8f2194c70a5982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,824,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $360,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,824,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 196,362$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 163,006$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.01 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…27ffbacked Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…1ac9backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…d801backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…2470backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…1adebacked Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…cb7ebacked Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4007…3b7bbacked Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…2813backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…4129backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…0069backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…3f43backed Yes | 0c | 161,398$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 98,181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…aba9backed Yes | 0c | 98,181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 0c | 98,080$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…890fbacked Yes | 0c | 97,178$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432c…a326backed Yes | 0c | 96,974$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5863…3c74backed Yes | 0c | 96,974$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…cab9backed Yes | 0c | 96,974$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…8ae8backed Yes | 0c | 87,178$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…10b4backed Yes | 0c | 87,178$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…9daabacked Yes | 0c | 87,178$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a49…b877backed Yes | 0c | 87,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…ee6ebacked Yes | 0c | 85,647$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…ef6ebacked Yes | 0c | 80,953$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…68bebacked Yes | 0c | 80,950$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…dc34backed Yes | 0c | 80,940$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…670bbacked Yes | 0c | 80,699$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…fa8abacked Yes | 0c | 80,699$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…bf2dbacked Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719f…3683backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…6060backed Yes | 0c | 79,964$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…0bd6backed Yes | 0c | 79,964$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb14…a7a4backed Yes | 0c | 77,498$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4831…e8c8backed Yes | 0c | 77,399$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…c7c6backed Yes | 0c | 77,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…e876backed Yes | 0c | 76,840$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…724bbacked Yes | 0c | 75,996$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…c581backed Yes | 0c | 74,480$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc14…3a83backed Yes | 0c | 73,480$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…561fbacked Yes | 0c | 73,480$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…7ee3backed Yes | 0c | 73,480$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabda…bff0backed Yes | 0c | 73,470$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…f5cfbacked Yes | 0c | 73,460$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde11…81fdbacked Yes | 0c | 73,460$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…2b29backed Yes | 0c | 72,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…b2eebacked Yes | 0c | 69,480$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60c…663cbacked Yes | 0c | 66,200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…45ecbacked Yes | 0c | 65,090$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…e90dbacked Yes | 0c | 62,237$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfb…3404backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…1208backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 31,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…6312backed Yes | 0c | 29,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1ec0backed Yes | 0c | 23,774$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,037$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…9877backed Yes | 0c | 12,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…b999backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…fb3dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Yes | 1c | 5,398$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…b128backed Yes | 1c | 3,677$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c23…3809backed Yes | 0c | 2,647$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +350.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,566$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…0d10backed Yes | 1c | 1,445$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?this page
- Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.