TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,112,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,981,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,112,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c52,508$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.194440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf106…ddd2backed Yes7c36,543$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73c…d882backed Yes8c25,788$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes5c23,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64fb…5dcabacked Yes2c19,754$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2676…7b08backed Yes9c17,625$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c17,446$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d1…5312backed Yes0c16,200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes4c16,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.96149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes5c15,555$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.757932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6de1…3345backed Yes4c15,355$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes3c15,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-77.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes8c13,199$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0613…6af5backed Yes2c13,092$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes2c12,960$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.94334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2945…862ebacked Yes6c12,594$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c12,138$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.381664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d6…4194backed Yes0c11,761$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5888…e0f8backed Yes0c11,761$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0209…c794backed Yes1c11,761$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc55f…3f6ebacked Yes0c11,761$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf04…46cbbacked Yes0c11,458$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb734…2715backed Yes4c11,269$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.93450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes5c11,110$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.523225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b4c…25fcbacked Yes1c10,557$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5271…78afbacked Yes1c10,557$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes7c8,714$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.143537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9f…fb03backed Yes0c8,580$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0074…a9e8backed Yes12c7,600$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f96…567bbacked Yes1c7,075$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed Yes6c7,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc334…1c20backed Yes1c6,990$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fe…5ddfbacked Yes1c6,929$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1679…3871backed Yes1c6,590$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f09…20e3backed Yes0c6,570$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f1…7be7backed Yes3c6,528$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.48147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-86.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes5c6,350$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d84…f31abacked Yes0c6,271$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…7b6cbacked Yes1c5,936$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f49…da60backed Yes9c5,537$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1298…5967backed Yes1c5,400$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes4c5,246$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-81.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c5,198$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.586883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0f…a189backed Yes0c5,187$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9923…39e0backed Yes1c5,170$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b43…0a73backed Yes14c5,000$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab7…ca89backed Yes0c4,888$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes7c4,793$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.081612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6894…3470backed Yes4c4,646$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcab…e3a5backed Yes7c4,447$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes10c4,351$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.582835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a94…714cbacked Yes7c4,284$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes4c4,094$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.12714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes6c4,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+285.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes5c3,997$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.85650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ac…822abacked Yes4c3,969$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d4…f102backed Yes9c3,889$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02cc…f04fbacked Yes8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,486$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.661,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa355…aba6backed Yes5c3,351$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1a…f75abacked Yes9c3,244$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ac…7164backed Yes5c3,195$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab20…8355backed Yes9c3,161$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes8c2,897$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.85628.6%16 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x260e…ee31backed Yes8c2,885$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes8c2,778$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.211741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd158…7cc4backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x632e…2de3backed Yes5c2,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes9c2,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3db…2467backed Yes6c2,497$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes2c2,486$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.775317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f3…f673backed Yes3c2,361$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f4…29c3backed Yes6c2,310$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…c562backed Yes5c2,230$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes1c2,218$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes9c2,026$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.34231%13 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6651…e3ebbacked Yes1c2,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d2…c177backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9d…e979backed Yes5c1,846$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c67…c399backed Yes1c1,718$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cc…1413backed Yes5c1,668$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906e…a4e0backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad83…0575backed Yes1c1,667$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08b…e35bbacked Yes1c1,565$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd332…0980backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe0…dffdbacked Yes4c1,400$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c1,342$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.791344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c7…8bbebacked Yes1c1,325$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes8c1,307$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.261520%3 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7f…4f2cbacked Yes8c1,271$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…c320backed Yes4c1,264$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a62…e491backed Yes10c1,227$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid+1,403.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb59c…9b66backed Yes8c1,224$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb32b…f0c9backed Yes4c1,200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe645…345abacked Yes10c1,154$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.761338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29cf…8ceabacked Yes9c1,149$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7a…0907backed Yes5c1,135$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.