World Politics · resolved market
Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bd48fa92be4a8bc52b307d9aa34b1fc79adbf58bc3ab1599a9aef0b4344495
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,115,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,115,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f1b…582ebacked Yes | 0c | 122,642$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…11abbacked Yes | 0c | 108,671$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…544cbacked Yes | 0c | 95,506$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…c5b3backed Yes | 0c | 88,938$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56a…38fbbacked Yes | 0c | 77,820$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…a9f7backed Yes | 0c | 77,510$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…d9e4backed Yes | 0c | 77,148$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1f…7ed6backed Yes | 0c | 72,371$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…97debacked Yes | 0c | 69,764$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…35a8backed Yes | 0c | 69,764$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3f…5312backed Yes | 0c | 69,154$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…e6c6backed Yes | 0c | 66,703$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…8018backed Yes | 0c | 65,024$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f5…f824backed Yes | 0c | 65,024$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b3…8466backed Yes | 0c | 64,330$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…33e8backed Yes | 0c | 64,330$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…6ef4backed Yes | 0c | 64,330$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…d497backed Yes | 0c | 64,330$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…219abacked Yes | 0c | 64,330$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…a9d1backed Yes | 0c | 64,330$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4185…8ab3backed Yes | 0c | 61,771$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…1616backed Yes | 0c | 59,828$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…94cbbacked Yes | 0c | 59,828$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…bf6abacked Yes | 0c | 59,828$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…e0ddbacked Yes | 0c | 59,823$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…e8a5backed Yes | 0c | 59,798$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7844…b82bbacked Yes | 0c | 59,798$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…9ae5backed Yes | 0c | 59,798$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…cf70backed Yes | 0c | 59,798$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…4b2ebacked Yes | 0c | 58,771$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764c…3c4dbacked Yes | 0c | 57,857$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…7fadbacked Yes | 0c | 57,850$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…b29bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,288$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…f602backed Yes | 0c | 56,288$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac4…560fbacked Yes | 0c | 56,288$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…c497backed Yes | 0c | 56,288$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…351dbacked Yes | 0c | 56,288$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fc…c1b5backed Yes | 0c | 50,574$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…7ce6backed Yes | 0c | 50,574$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…dc59backed Yes | 0c | 49,857$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…0f36backed Yes | 0c | 49,857$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,775$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…b2eebacked Yes | 0c | 20,629$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…c59abacked Yes | 0c | 14,129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 11,439$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Yes | 0c | 10,964$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 10,182$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7be7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Yes | 0c | 9,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…7a43backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…c0fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,564$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?this page
- Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.