TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,687,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$320,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,687,035 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes0c94,496$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.58838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aeb…27ffbacked Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487b…d801backed Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c04…2470backed Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c5…1adebacked Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a0…cb7ebacked Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4007…3b7bbacked Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f58…2813backed Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398a…4129backed Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…0069backed Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac6…3f43backed Yes0c81,588$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc773…1ac9backed Yes0c81,583$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c42,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d3…375cbacked Yes0c26,516$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes1c24,421$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c18,347$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06b6…b248backed Yes0c17,354$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c17,065$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.06170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes0c16,644$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-77.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x41c1…0160backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes24c10,553$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.0319027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-90.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…eb25backed Yes0c9,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1def…c0fcbacked Yes0c9,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef72…df03backed Yes0c7,248$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9f…fb03backed Yes0c6,388$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2a…700fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe297…d9edbacked Yes0c4,956$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes24c4,884$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.224334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x61f1…7be7backed Yes25c4,696$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.47147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-86.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked No74c4,449$3,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.21742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes35c4,187$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.366149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed No64c3,661$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.267057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfc1…73d8backed Yes30c3,206$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+134.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes34c3,000$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.258047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes8c3,000$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.242714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5a…5b3abacked Yes0c2,784$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d03…fabfbacked No74c2,500$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes35c2,309$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.666030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No73c2,302$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.417037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes26c2,096$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.5618036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes28c1,890$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.11643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes35c1,598$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5574938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No72c1,593$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4215026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe059…66cebacked Yes37c1,476$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No75c1,167$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.154555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6428…bc3cbacked Yes27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e9…ef4dbacked Yes2c1,039$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed Yes39c973.6$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3807731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d56…4950backed No66c912.24$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.245100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b86…d7afbacked Yes17c853.72$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed Yes36c823.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…842fbacked No71c821.55$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.31250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeede…8a73backed Yes30c799.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes11c775.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.972133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5921…3e13backed No67c746.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-68.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c743.28$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5537117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes33c694.21$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes22c691.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.254327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes24c688.71$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5136742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes31c687.56$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7724736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6974…1287backed Yes29c677.76$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf23c…ad58backed Yes39c665.58$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0065…02f3backed Yes34c665$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick45cpaid+272.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed No72c661.41$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.21944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes27c658.16$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1919957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb18c…b41ebacked No74c650.13$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.033100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c637.58$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7956314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x10c4…466fbacked No79c633.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e5…1c91backed Yes34c622.66$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.091421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c597.63$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.211,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes37c593.64$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022a…2da6backed No72c555.56$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55a…dfddbacked Yes24c541.96$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No64c534.77$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.521060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24cf…9156backed Yes38c531.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes32c511.2$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.253826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes26c508.22$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.145740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342e…7e88backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick43cpaid-75.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No73c499.89$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.173737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f8…2d91backed Yes31c470.49$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7f…65bfbacked Yes26c467.24$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No75c456.09$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.754168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes34c447.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9911741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb207…bbd0backed Yes16c444.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…e8cfbacked No70c441.3$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes34c441.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c3…9214backed Yes19c425.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+55.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes35c405.74$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+1,305.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…e330backed Yes30c390$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1162842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes33c387.67$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.931540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+195.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes21c360.48$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.467631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes24c355.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9834726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.