World Politics · resolved market
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7290e188ccbc8fe771b65215237d4c33ced5a9ef819f3d574abe069ba84648
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,687,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $320,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,687,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 94,496$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…27ffbacked Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…d801backed Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…2470backed Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…1adebacked Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…cb7ebacked Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4007…3b7bbacked Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…2813backed Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…4129backed Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…0069backed Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…3f43backed Yes | 0c | 81,588$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…1ac9backed Yes | 0c | 81,583$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…375cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,516$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 1c | 24,421$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,347$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…b248backed Yes | 0c | 17,354$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 17,065$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 0c | 16,644$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…0160backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 24c | 10,553$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.03 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…eb25backed Yes | 0c | 9,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…c0fcbacked Yes | 0c | 9,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…df03backed Yes | 0c | 7,248$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…fb03backed Yes | 0c | 6,388$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…700fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…d9edbacked Yes | 0c | 4,956$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 24c | 4,884$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.22 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7be7backed Yes | 25c | 4,696$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.47 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked No | 74c | 4,449$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 35c | 4,187$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.36 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 64c | 3,661$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.26 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…73d8backed Yes | 30c | 3,206$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.25 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.24 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…5b3abacked Yes | 0c | 2,784$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…fabfbacked No | 74c | 2,500$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 35c | 2,309$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.66 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 73c | 2,302$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.4 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 26c | 2,096$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.56 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 1,890$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 35c | 1,598$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 72c | 1,593$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.42 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…66cebacked Yes | 37c | 1,476$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 75c | 1,167$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.15 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…bc3cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…ef4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,039$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 39c | 973.6$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed No | 66c | 912.24$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…d7afbacked Yes | 17c | 853.72$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed Yes | 36c | 823.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked No | 71c | 821.55$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed Yes | 30c | 799.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 11c | 775.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed No | 67c | 746.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 743.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes | 33c | 694.21$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 22c | 691.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 688.71$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 31c | 687.56$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.77 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…1287backed Yes | 29c | 677.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed Yes | 39c | 665.58$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 34c | 665$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 45cpaid | +272.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed No | 72c | 661.41$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 27c | 658.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…b41ebacked No | 74c | 650.13$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 637.58$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…466fbacked No | 79c | 633.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 34c | 622.66$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 597.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 37c | 593.64$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…2da6backed No | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…dfddbacked Yes | 24c | 541.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 64c | 534.77$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…9156backed Yes | 38c | 531.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 32c | 511.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 26c | 508.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 73c | 499.89$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Yes | 31c | 470.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…65bfbacked Yes | 26c | 467.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 75c | 456.09$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 34c | 447.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…bbd0backed Yes | 16c | 444.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked No | 70c | 441.3$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…9214backed Yes | 19c | 425.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 35c | 405.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 30c | 390$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 33c | 387.67$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 21c | 360.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 355.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?this page
- Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.