World Politics · resolved market
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x320e3f08cbe47ef77c0897876a10270a472df0bcf1a32b40fd6f532cd007d2eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $846,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $846,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 92,997$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 62,775$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.77 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 51,498$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…aba9backed Yes | 0c | 51,498$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…2b55backed Yes | 0c | 21,317$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…f288backed Yes | 0c | 21,316$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…375cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,298$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…fb03backed Yes | 0c | 17,160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…e90dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,460$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…86d9backed Yes | 0c | 13,190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed Yes | 0c | 10,180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…c0fcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…8d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…f772backed Yes | 2c | 8,438$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…f92bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,601$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…a9b8backed Yes | 0c | 6,088$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…95f8backed Yes | 1c | 5,450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…6543backed Yes | 1c | 5,450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,431$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,306$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…91ebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,175$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…dcf7backed Yes | 0c | 3,106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…c267backed Yes | 0c | 3,076$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…b98abacked Yes | 0c | 2,760$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…b1bebacked Yes | 0c | 2,725$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…dd84backed Yes | 0c | 2,676$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…8dd8backed Yes | 0c | 2,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…d2ecbacked Yes | 0c | 2,630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…3345backed Yes | 2c | 2,564$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…57e6backed Yes | 0c | 2,520$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Yes | 3c | 1,988$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,922$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,439$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 5c | 1,197$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…d833backed Yes | 4c | 1,186$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…3269backed Yes | 4c | 1,135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a94cbacked Yes | 2c | 556.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…34c8backed Yes | 6c | 355.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 328.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?this page
- Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No won
- Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.