TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3a86…dea8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,416
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 57 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT48224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 482 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$730Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$729.97
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.53
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12,630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,629.76
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,042Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,041.72
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.07
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.7
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,097Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,097.1
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$455.3
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.96
Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the next Maltese general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.66
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.46
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$458.05
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+170.4%+$883.84
Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.11
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.51
Will the Conservative Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.22
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.78
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$822.83
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.53
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$160.7
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$631.63
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$375.49
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.54
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.94
Showing 25 of 482 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT16725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 167 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$115.56
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+1,061.8%+$2,613.71
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$229
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,992Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$810.92
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.97
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.68
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+100%+$50
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$197.14
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$199.03
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+87.8%+$59.17
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+124.9%+$425.94
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$15.82
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$21.75
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,362Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,362.07
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$69.97
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$846Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$845.72
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,670Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+39.5%+$1,054.42
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22.54
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$96.14
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$129.39
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$18.29
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$146.62
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$253.41
Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$231.12
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$231.51
Showing 25 of 167 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT14129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 141 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.1
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$431Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$431.08
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.56
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$687.18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.75
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.34
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$565.69
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$196.43
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$626.51
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$48.53
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.27
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$65.41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,960Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$1,221.94
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+89.8%+$276.23
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$729Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+713.5%+$5,198.35
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$683.7
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.65
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$156.27
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.26
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$991.68
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.52
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.98
Showing 25 of 141 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT11040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 110 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.15
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.76
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.64
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16,029Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$4,725.82
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$8,837Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$2,857.12
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$602.32
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$70.27
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,764Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,764.42
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$461.3
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,187Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+88.8%+$5,492.44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,415Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+779.6%+$11,034.25
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$904.47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10,037Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$2,949.77
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$138.75
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$362.46
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$138.34
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,740Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+138.2%+$2,404.52
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the February Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$324.16
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,245Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+51.1%+$636.79
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+87.7%+$223.4
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$158.76
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.32
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.63
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,107.71
Showing 25 of 110 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT8331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 83 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$451
Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.54
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+274.4%+$677.49
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.08
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+101.8%+$504.06
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+82.2%+$141.67
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.65
Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.87
Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$17.28
Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.8
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.94
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 75% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,160.97
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,346Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,345.7
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,043Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,042.71
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.7%+$29.91
Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+49.3%+$69.96
Will Democrats win five elections in Nov?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$233.96
Will Democrats win three elections in Nov?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$70.2
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+53.8%+$105
Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+96.8%+$107.88
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be less than 21%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40.3
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 21–24%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$217.55
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 24–27%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$167.67
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 30–33%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+44.9%+$15.5
Showing 25 of 83 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 81 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$455
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.06
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.68
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.67
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.17
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.72
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.4
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.71
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.74
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.62
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,166.96
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+285.7%+$1,126.31
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100.7%+$452.43
AWS service disrupted by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.68
Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$194.96
Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.57
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$989Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$989.38
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$27.36
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+333%+$681.16
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$26.81
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$312.11
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$212.28
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q4 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$106.66
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$142.77
Showing 25 of 81 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7220.8%15 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$783Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$782.75
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,552.53
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.21
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$396.02
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.13
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$3,668Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,668.37
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.66
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,531.9
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$944Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$944.11
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$897Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$897.42
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,924Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$1,297.44
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.84
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.72
Megaquake by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.26
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$755Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$289.98
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$52.8
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$27.01
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$49.64
Megaquake by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30.66
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$244.35
Will December 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$12.78
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$514Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$513.96
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$887Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$887.39
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$57.2
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT6229%18 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.36
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$73.26
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.99
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.23
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.46
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.21
Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.32
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+60.1%+$35.69
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$28.8
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.1
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.3
Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.88
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.65
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$988.79
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$59.42
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$357.72
Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$90.85
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$133.2
Will F1: The Movie win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$111.65
Will Bugonia win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$165.24
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$122.77
Will Bugonia win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$124.32
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT4320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,094Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,093.74
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$679Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$678.9
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+167.5%+$764.59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+58.7%+$74
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.5
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$122.7
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,543Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+30.3%+$467.83
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,522Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.4%+$386.88
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+93.9%+$339
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.06
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.7%+$24.05
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$51.45
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$96.76
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$112.59
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$7,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$7,117.27
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$23.85
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$463.06
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,604Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+401.2%+$10,444.9
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$204.16
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$432.88
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$382.6
Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.33
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$3,808Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,808.22
Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.57
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,419Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$477.1
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+131.6%+$51.75
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$338.65
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.29
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.86
Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$357.33
Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.66
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.62
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$876Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$876.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,129.05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.84
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,535Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,535.25
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.58
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.55
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,688Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$431.68
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.71
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.73
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$823.39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+364.9%+$185.21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.69
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,929Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+143.2%+$5,626.64
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,377.67
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$57.78
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT2536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$111
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.88
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.59
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$320.4
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.91
Will Palantir dip to $111 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$230.1
Will Meta reach $730 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+53%+$157.36
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$516Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+25.9%+$133.32
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $230 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$86.29
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$218.41
Will ARM Holdings (ARM) be the worst performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$184.96
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$105 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.77
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$107.67
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.9%+$22.34
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$205.6
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+1,873%+$1,406.82
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $178 end of December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$824Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+378.7%+$3,118.38
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$128.22
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,070.81
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $5.00 end of December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$388.16
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $176 end of December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$66.84
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $170 end of December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$48.89
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.6%+$56.16
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of December 22 above $5.50?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$46.43
All 25 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.33
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.87
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.18
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.71
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,394Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+28.3%+$959.26
Negative GDP growth in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$744Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$743.98
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$228.44
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$3,427.46
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+63.9%+$10.68
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+3,027.7%+$938.35
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$135.24
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$177.37
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$182.98
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,632Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,631.78
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.81
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$362.3
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.35
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$889Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+38.5%+$341.7
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$885Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$225.27
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.58
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.65
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$6,126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+184.6%+$11,306.17
Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between ≥4.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+34.9%+$90.5
All 23 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+118.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,238Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+184.3%+$2,280.57
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,168Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$299.53
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.2
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,666Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,665.78
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,179.66
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$80.4
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$747.54
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,494Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+35.2%+$525.7
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$5,518Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+131.1%+$7,233.4
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23,794Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23,793.58
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,879Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+979.3%+$28,198.58
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$224.7
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,214Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+81%+$982.85
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+184.7%+$408.12
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$833Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$832.58
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$452.57
Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+2,007.6%+$3,196.22
Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$255.34
Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$961Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+114.4%+$1,099.22
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Over 60% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$34.36
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$523.39
Maduro out before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+66.7%+$8
All 22 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST2045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+71.7%+$334
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$29.97
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$393.65
Bitcoin all time high by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$57.72
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,084Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+29.1%+$606.2
Ethereum all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$906Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+110.6%+$1,002.13
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$859Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+37.4%+$321.32
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.14
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.56
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$311.12
Solana all time high in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.75
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+140.5%+$1,110
Bitcoin all time high in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$5,289Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,288.88
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,982Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,981.54
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,048.77
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,255Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$1,369.63
Ethereum all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+67.9%+$866.24
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$556.27
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,025.27
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$309.51
All 20 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.75
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.31
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.88
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.53
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$489.05
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,531Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,530.53
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$451.71
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,205.22
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.18
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$799Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+332%+$2,652.41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+294.9%+$1,428.59
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$81
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$809Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$809.35
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,055Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+129.4%+$1,365.98
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$1,582.06
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$4,931Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,931.24
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,563Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,562.76
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.96
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,929Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$517.23
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,971Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,970.71
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,413.92
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$958Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$957.98
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.95
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,625.89
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+43%+$127.09
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.27
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$119.2
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.93
Will Meta acquire TikTok?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.69
Will Amazon acquire TikTok?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.91
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.84
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.01
China x Philippines military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.12
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$197.44
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$57.24
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.55
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trove launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$42.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,046Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,046.07
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.