TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,006,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,033,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,006,155 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 787 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes2c93,529$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.2410930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c85,063$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,431.381306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes10c85,000$8,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,594.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes4c84,271$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.8632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c59,442$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.24948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Yes8c58,501$4,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,868.470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes10c57,827$5,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,752.18944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes2c46,711$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes6c44,710$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.41811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes7c42,267$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.6611734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes3c38,996$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.759317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes3c37,907$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes5c37,481$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.24610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c35,637$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8915020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes2c33,289$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.833619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes2c33,062$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5962010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes4c30,553$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.26170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd16…649cbacked Yes3c26,660$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.02110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes3c26,333$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.9511921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x428e…bf30backed Yes12c25,820$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c0…7162backed Yes6c24,332$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c23,988$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.071884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes11c21,651$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.191711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f03…7d75backed Yes6c21,408$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3702222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…451cbacked Yes6c21,179$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes5c21,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ba…96abbacked Yes4c20,725$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.321816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc228…b6c5backed Yes6c20,606$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.08185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-77.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes12c20,000$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c19,644$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57e…2944backed Yes1c19,231$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes1c18,742$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.151020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes2c17,028$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5abd…b58fbacked Yes2c16,793$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.11128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c16,687$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.982324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes2c15,692$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.62130%0 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes11c15,381$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes0c14,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…9371backed Yes6c13,472$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c12,694$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.741212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…66e6backed Yes2c12,610$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c12,400$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.44112.2%5 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b6c…64b4backed Yes6c12,300$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.22416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c11,600$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c11,280$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.65912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes6c10,950$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.6260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes4c10,892$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.8880%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f54…0161backed Yes5c10,688$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.58728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-39.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes6c10,316$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.091520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe168…356bbacked Yes0c10,200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b74…fbf9backed Yes1c10,148$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d6…235bbacked Yes1c10,003$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…8f78backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc4…1e66backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…7751backed Yes1c9,973$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes5c9,970$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.6313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad16…f464backed Yes5c9,934$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes2c9,887$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes1c9,683$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.79824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes6c9,555$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.32330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a7…f75abacked Yes4c9,430$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x258d…4fd6backed Yes10c9,145$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.45911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes6c9,041$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.5490%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33c6…6daabacked Yes1c9,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes4c8,888$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc731…669cbacked Yes6c8,734$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.77633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ed…81e8backed Yes5c8,698$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c8,585$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.35956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3054…69c5backed Yes11c8,540$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbbed…804ebacked Yes0c8,524$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.031414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4f…f9d5backed Yes4c8,406$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f9…6f18backed Yes2c8,322$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.871711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c8,273$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.635018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa4…5f8cbacked Yes4c8,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-80.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes8c7,852$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.34100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c30…6759backed Yes1c7,622$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c7,457$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.2430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x219d…145bbacked Yes1c7,432$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ad…0862backed Yes1c7,367$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes4c7,299$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.437011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f7…2094backed Yes14c7,299$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes8c7,276$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.232245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df2…5aa4backed Yes1c7,131$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes5c7,054$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ccb…fbbbbacked Yes9c6,704$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes6c6,583$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.872532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda1…2006backed Yes4c6,434$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7931…ef3dbacked Yes5c6,380$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d4…c7d4backed Yes2c6,293$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes11c6,279$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.2140%0 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8276…48e4backed Yes9c6,242$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.571414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes6c6,213$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.42664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ac…f05dbacked Yes1c6,144$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c6,081$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.85692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…26dabacked Yes4c6,080$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbab…21eebacked Yes5c6,062$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30960%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7e…732abacked Yes6c5,998$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x258c…9b67backed Yes9c5,640$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.021323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c5,521$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9721015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c5,445$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.77530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.