TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,863,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,863,231 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 544 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf396…ed0dbacked No0c1,609,593$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.59825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No0c1,184,865$5,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,703.465149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d18…74c3backed No0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972e…4665backed No1c500,000$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad3…fb0fbacked No0c452,659$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…c241backed No0c385,170$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd8…e6d0backed No0c357,977$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c310,848$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.722050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1f…e26ebacked No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No0c280,998$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.270%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa09d…b7fdbacked No0c244,000$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5c…e416backed No0c229,040$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1874…09c7backed No0c225,882$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd757…374cbacked No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No0c152,886$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.447727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed No0c130,783$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.584723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…0eabbacked No0c115,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ad…c876backed No0c113,060$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.62137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a00…c0e1backed No0c109,648$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b76…c271backed No0c100,058$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aff…ed85backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f62…980abacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeee…c2a5backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd331…387fbacked No0c95,232$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb566…bb25backed No0c95,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…f2fcbacked No0c93,460$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No2c88,453$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.872910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f61…7c21backed No0c85,126$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0e…9818backed No0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56c…735abacked No0c75,000$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebf…cdeebacked No0c73,530$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3643…46a5backed No0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa556…cf96backed No0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd833…dd11backed No0c57,560$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e9…be7cbacked No0c55,855$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661f…f442backed No0c55,425$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df6…1edabacked No0c55,000$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b67…444ebacked No0c54,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed No0c51,600$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5160…b803backed No0c51,508$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.53520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-67.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf747…7d29backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a70…2828backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…bfdebacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1079…ca89backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fe…8509backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa919…7251backed No0c49,995$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe14…983abacked No0c49,950$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf018…f0b4backed No0c49,750$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…c9f7backed No0c46,544$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c10…49e3backed No0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…3bdcbacked No0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8524…2af7backed No0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63c5…eb0ebacked No0c39,550$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b8…76a8backed No0c38,670$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed No0c32,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No2c31,135$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.74425%11 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed18…0b97backed No0c30,017$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad10…afcdbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71c…1af4backed No0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0344…64ffbacked No0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ba…adb3backed No0c27,945$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ace…ef05backed No0c25,493$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8948…a6b2backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…2351backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79fb…5817backed No9c24,210$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983b…09c4backed No0c23,815$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615b…284cbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbb…7d73backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…2974backed No0c19,850$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2633…f386backed No0c18,790$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d4…b54ebacked No0c18,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…9ae7backed No0c18,112$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec28…915abacked No0c18,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c17,839$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.19911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed No0c17,700$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff6…1369backed No0c17,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204050%20 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No17c17,112$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,854.67170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x75cd…a15bbacked No0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No60c16,688$10,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,077.436233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c16,481$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.52221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes77c15,412$11,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.330238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62ed…db2fbacked No0c15,410$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda19…32bbbacked No0c15,407$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x053d…caedbacked No0c14,990$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x001d…7ac4backed No0c14,910$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes70c14,871$10,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.585151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b08…f57abacked No1c13,994$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad6…bf78backed No0c13,835$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb32b…ae16backed No0c13,490$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925e…1188backed No0c12,925$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5846…0388backed No0c12,460$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27a9…6bcdbacked No0c12,407$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.84425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc558…d634backed No0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe8…d706backed No0c11,965$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes36c11,898$4,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,603.45844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5815…4d68backed No17c11,861$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd966…6469backed No1c11,381$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes80c11,363$9,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.63056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82fb…3094backed No0c11,305$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.