TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,009,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,019,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,009,443 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c338,676$259,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,916.4593040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes18c257,873$45,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,945.110930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes63c218,892$137,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137,743.856233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No18c175,945$31,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,576.681050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa80e…b94bbacked No33c144,692$47,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,956.432653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes20c142,620$28,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,496.5311921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No65c142,271$92,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,137.16651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes16c118,068$18,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,907.81170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes46c75,301$34,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,785.912532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25c…6430backed Yes26c64,557$16,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,932.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb7…3b83backed Yes45c51,830$23,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,236.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes11c51,163$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,745.879317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6f8…316dbacked No4c50,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,0002100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+1,234.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes47c46,657$22,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,094.012832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No72c41,821$29,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,915.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2a…b87fbacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed No73c38,785$28,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,339.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes58c37,290$21,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,527.083135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes40c36,301$14,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,551.522250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No61c36,000$22,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,932.771681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes42c35,348$14,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,824.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes35c31,918$11,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,094.784610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes19c31,896$5,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,915.071414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes63c30,434$19,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,067.81010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No65c30,280$19,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,469.3911838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No15c26,912$4,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,874.83580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+201.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes53c26,775$14,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,121.881323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed No23c26,062$6,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,046.42540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+115.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes28c24,575$6,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,803.571811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked No29c23,974$6,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,017.685143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes26c23,500$6,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,072.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3762…b66dbacked Yes19c23,238$4,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.7170%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe043…faa2backed Yes17c23,222$3,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed No33c22,943$7,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,430.59650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+71.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked No31c21,928$6,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,226.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+68.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No77c21,450$16,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,848.722176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes34c21,000$7,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,126.7311734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x625a…8031backed Yes19c20,652$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,998.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Yes64c20,367$13,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,041.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b28…5d7cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes21c19,953$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,159.521306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No35c19,327$6,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,625.684544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed No66c18,848$12,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,432.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes16c18,472$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.671711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes33c18,311$6,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,038.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes10c18,001$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.22119%4 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cb…83a5backed Yes27c17,132$4,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.661428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes54c17,093$9,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,178.471931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No33c16,764$5,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,236.161361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+192%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes53c16,666$8,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,785.335234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes11c16,600$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes18c16,355$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.557723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes47c15,888$7,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,542.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bdf…b24bbacked Yes59c15,697$9,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,269.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes8c15,555$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.292330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes8c15,442$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.22910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18dc…03a2backed Yes37c15,435$5,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,76460%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No10c15,345$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,758.091050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No80c15,189$12,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,047.821323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca72…30cdbacked Yes13c15,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes58c14,771$8,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,625.45130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No49c14,543$7,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,433.669745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes43c14,239$6,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,105.041931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed No33c13,912$4,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,316.982965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Yes23c13,874$3,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,168.371435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…9f97backed Yes54c13,782$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5001811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb57…0a46backed No79c13,671$10,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.991471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+46.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Yes53c13,521$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,200.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes16c13,467$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.553135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes26c13,414$3,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,468.5532023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed No68c13,210$9,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,184.739658.3%56 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes45c13,191$5,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.171421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc0…6b22backed Yes39c12,905$5,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,044.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1507…8363backed No61c12,905$7,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,045.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes11c12,723$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.162313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked No46c12,475$5,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,736.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes21c12,408$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca1…a192backed Yes62c12,384$7,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,658.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…2cdabacked Yes61c11,795$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,165.121926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf71f…043abacked Yes30c11,400$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,417.161136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed Yes42c11,387$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No30c11,371$3,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,919.8430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf018…f0b4backed No72c11,139$8,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb89…8803backed No65c11,098$7,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,922.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes40c11,000$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No47c10,985$5,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,859.442171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked No49c10,975$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,574.891546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca87…8e3dbacked Yes80c10,862$8,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,689.630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd227…dc03backed Yes12c10,551$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5dc…54e4backed Yes35c10,273$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ea…ae12backed Yes56c10,202$5,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,710.921127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick61cpaid-58.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed No59c10,111$5,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.31090%9 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c9,917$7,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.9523846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes14c9,595$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.74175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x745b…0b9abacked Yes24c9,558$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No59c9,532$5,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,874.65825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…adb6backed No72c9,514$6,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick75cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes15c9,436$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.127711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No49c9,341$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,741.461580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes20c9,271$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.097011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.