TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,069,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,669,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,069,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25db…28debacked Yes7c189,584$12,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,898.29317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes6c131,919$8,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,523.1710930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes6c110,126$7,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,065.2211921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes13c58,601$7,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,862.6632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f09…76e4backed Yes10c52,267$5,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,395.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes13c51,340$6,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,535.31425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes7c48,992$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes10c43,046$4,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,138.47170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x662b…8a95backed No72c42,962$31,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,849.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c40,052$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.93948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes22c38,446$8,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,622.132532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb3…02bfbacked No47c33,483$15,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,741.331464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes1c33,287$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47a…6d60backed No70c31,567$21,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,571.078100%8 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b89…47c9backed Yes31c31,139$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes14c26,924$3,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,801.564610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes31c25,554$8,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,012.366233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes3c23,828$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.541020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes8c23,555$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes4c23,276$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.9415020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0075…eb1abacked No64c21,104$13,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,520.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No75c20,695$15,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,170.09757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes18c20,241$3,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,648.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5835…3beebacked Yes7c19,580$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No76c18,000$13,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,365.751681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x212b…35c9backed Yes2c17,201$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac4…9757backed Yes4c17,110$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes24c16,942$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…0960backed Yes18c16,090$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes35c15,982$5,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,566.511711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes11c15,953$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.37011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c15,463$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.287711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No48c15,375$7,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,946.646267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No80c14,825$11,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes2c14,820$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.94180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5475…bafdbacked Yes4c14,228$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes28c13,669$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf600…5015backed Yes21c13,600$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,84840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes19c13,553$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x817c…a994backed Yes3c13,358$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes41c13,345$5,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5042250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes14c13,122$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.593619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c13,001$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.951884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2272…b294backed Yes48c12,998$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,240.0790%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes38c12,995$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes27c12,395$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381.481811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d4…2037backed No79c11,219$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.69560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c10,728$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.92912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad12…5cf6backed Yes62c10,165$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Yes28c10,133$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.3270%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa75f…433abacked Yes29c10,000$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5dc…54e4backed Yes14c9,988$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…5ea1backed Yes19c9,459$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,81710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes16c9,437$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.553056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes25c9,218$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.252313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes39c9,030$3,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,536.821546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba6…3567backed Yes16c8,878$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes3c8,818$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.21205%1 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-87.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes8c8,765$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.4490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…7751backed Yes3c8,762$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes29c8,667$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5301723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes12c8,623$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes21c8,602$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.417538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b34…294cbacked Yes41c8,228$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c8,087$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.182324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd975…a205backed No50c8,014$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c7,574$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.1730718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5abd…b58fbacked Yes16c7,375$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Yes5c7,100$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No62c7,019$4,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.531464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed No76c6,924$5,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.161540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc835…6a0abacked Yes31c6,713$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c6,699$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.311212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f5…16e6backed Yes26c6,576$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-76.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33c6…6daabacked Yes4c6,526$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c6,364$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No41c6,307$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.911844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No56c6,266$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,741.211050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked Yes55c6,213$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,408.573036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes24c6,184$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.233036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes3c6,002$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.131,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No76c6,000$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4502176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No53c5,800$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7103268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+68.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes30c5,733$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc438…3ae6backed No72c5,700$4,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5961163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5576…5bf1backed Yes74c5,697$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes31c5,655$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed Yes10c5,500$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54280%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ea…f760backed Yes4c5,415$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes18c5,402$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.46110%0 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c870backed Yes15c5,349$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.5380%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49e0…5cc2backed Yes2c5,283$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes5c5,266$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.432010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…0cbfbacked Yes3c5,199$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…0df4backed Yes2c5,193$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed No53c5,118$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.96988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.54per pick35cpaid+218.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa47f…fd37backed Yes13c5,007$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes4c5,000$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes17c5,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8251618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.