Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfabba19cd8c2e38ccf9f6b0f369d465770bf59f62261ade98b14fbdbe2e0ebab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,187,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,187,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d4…8d71backed No | 1c | 765,604$6,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,620.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…c686backed No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…685ebacked No | 0c | 87,483$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7562…f03ebacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…046bbacked No | 1c | 35,333$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…b479backed No | 4c | 24,320$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…5eb4backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 0c | 17,389$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe640…1291backed No | 0c | 10,817$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…a249backed No | 0c | 10,043$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…f7bfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…9a60backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed No | 5c | 9,964$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 2c | 8,446$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 7,811$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed No | 1c | 6,774$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 6,623$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…a10dbacked No | 6c | 6,200$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…dc79backed No | 2c | 6,048$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 2c | 5,665$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed No | 2c | 4,609$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 6c | 3,557$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…86c5backed No | 4c | 3,350$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 5c | 2,421$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 1,903$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 6c | 1,901$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,719$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…5083backed No | 6c | 1,692$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,682$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…f2d6backed No | 7c | 1,461$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +517.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked No | 6c | 1,377$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 3c | 1,317$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 4c | 1,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…d5fbbacked No | 9c | 1,135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…ad20backed No | 9c | 1,134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…0cd1backed No | 2c | 1,005$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…5c33backed No | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 5cpaid | +887.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…5757backed No | 2c | 999.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 6c | 930.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…d036backed No | 2c | 914.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…0e2cbacked No | 3c | 909.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 822.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…6599backed No | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 6c | 753.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…4bc9backed No | 7c | 681.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…d3d0backed No | 3c | 632.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 610$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 2c | 564.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +329.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…da40backed No | 4c | 486.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 471.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…ed7fbacked No | 4c | 467.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…9274backed No | 9c | 466.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…9234backed No | 3c | 428.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…47c2backed No | 4c | 392.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…f381backed No | 4c | 339.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…ace4backed No | 8c | 333.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed No | 4c | 308.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…26f1backed No | 9c | 280.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…9e69backed No | 8c | 255.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 253.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 6c | 239.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…29fdbacked No | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7245backed No | 7c | 166.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 160.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…2c83backed No | 7c | 151.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…11afbacked No | 8c | 142.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.