TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,823,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,823,704 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f2f…b226backed No1c519,251$5,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,437.822231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked No0c490,065$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.0870%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked No0c405,526$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.9610930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked No0c240,423$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.511618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…7bcebacked No0c192,497$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbadb…5c33backed No1c158,304$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick5cpaid+887.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6e2…e41abacked No0c153,989$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No1c153,617$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.612910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No0c125,083$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.081050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked No0c120,348$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.371711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No0c83,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84b…7212backed No0c79,373$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No0c70,783$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.515149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No3c70,482$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.151723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98bd…7b6cbacked No0c58,343$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe172…248abacked No0c57,986$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7e…697ebacked No1c57,027$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8172…5f35backed No1c52,955$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f7…aaaabacked No1c50,568$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca72…30cdbacked No6c50,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6619…bc56backed No0c48,780$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d41…af55backed No1c47,070$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa9d…d9babacked No0c44,795$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc63…9f84backed No3c41,583$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf7…7eb4backed No0c40,425$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3269…37d7backed No0c36,680$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No1c36,557$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.41637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bf…c53abacked No1c36,500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1991040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…1068backed No0c33,686$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9880%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe23c…4391backed No1c33,684$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcbe…60bcbacked No0c33,042$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19a…8545backed No1c31,789$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+80.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…2e1ebacked No0c30,725$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed No1c28,378$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.394957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61ef…fe3bbacked No0c28,112$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed No0c27,308$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c26,401$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.652221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1217…7cf5backed No1c25,132$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ac…ba11backed No0c23,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked No1c22,006$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.32175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-91.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f6…a4a1backed No1c21,756$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b65…05b3backed No0c21,543$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No2c20,472$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.754330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed No1c20,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbbb…0c72backed No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2319…f9b4backed No1c19,972$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe95…de16backed No0c19,409$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60df…5c31backed No0c19,331$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7309…4967backed No2c18,280$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…ff3ebacked No6c18,211$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08af…0c53backed No0c18,051$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177d…0867backed No1c17,963$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddfa…265dbacked No0c17,347$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked No0c16,592$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No1c15,806$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.561241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fcb…a10dbacked No11c15,361$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ee…dae9backed No1c15,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf819…ce2bbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No1c14,600$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5b3…3072backed No1c14,500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72cb…5962backed No0c13,647$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4910148.5%49 W · 52 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4da…6482backed No0c12,608$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed No0c12,569$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7065…9feabacked No0c12,567$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed No1c12,463$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe02d…22febacked No1c11,919$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17d…5932backed No0c11,667$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No12c11,479$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.967335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47e…c825backed No0c11,260$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bb…fc23backed No0c11,250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4cc…c448backed No0c11,135$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a11…be4abacked No1c10,592$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b8…020dbacked No0c10,370$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc8…298bbacked No1c10,262$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d5…d0eabacked No1c10,260$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.772147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e5…bf1ebacked No1c10,102$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b15…7cacbacked No2c10,036$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3907…c4b8backed No0c10,024$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c47…e9bebacked No0c10,024$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x931c…9d7fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce0f…5d37backed No1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0427…a0c7backed No0c9,984$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d2acbacked No0c9,909$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.771010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-84.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9360…b9c7backed No0c9,402$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.271010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+96.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd4…b3a8backed No1c9,340$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c9,250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2573…9274backed No0c9,167$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No0c8,571$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.713644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed No8c8,338$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc1e…ee58backed No0c8,036$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe754…19f4backed No0c8,020$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb6…04b7backed No1c7,897$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-72.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9623…faa0backed No0c7,533$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f36…ca70backed No0c7,250$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b75…901cbacked No1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebf…fbddbacked No0c7,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f1…167ebacked No0c6,925$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.