TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35f6…a4a1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
30
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Earnings, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 55 out of 100; worst Lol at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$76.57
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+1,150.7%+$366.48
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.44
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$538.93
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.62
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on March 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+333.6%+$691.87
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.46
Will Meta (META) close above $640 on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.78
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.21
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.69
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.37
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.99
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.52
All 15 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+58%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$111.22
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will PDD Holdings (PDD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+246.5%+$252.17
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.96
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$173
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+180%+$107.47
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.47
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.66
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 23?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group Bbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.45
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.