Earnings · resolved market
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67594a31cf5fa5698cdeca867f66094d995411eb8ff2ef562973179230cecf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,918 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969b…db70backed Yes | 1c | 1,807$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 19c | 1,418$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…cf7fbacked No | 27c | 719.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 12c | 671.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.46 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 2c | 476.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Yes | 35c | 247.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 12c | 201.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…7e92backed Yes | 80c | 198.81$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 171.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 18c | 170.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed No | 36c | 167.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…a251backed Yes | 78c | 161.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 122.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Yes | 78c | 102.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d2…9e97backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 89.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 17c | 88.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 26c | 75.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…2b01backed Yes | 75c | 45.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 39c | 38.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ff…8876backed Yes | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…8a73backed Yes | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…6f90backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.