Earnings · resolved market
Will MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2da51fc29676e529ecb2899593992473ebfd52fb3f16620fcf704ec23519705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 4c | 3,700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +246.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 8c | 1,549$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.31 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 16c | 621.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.53 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…4003backed No | 38c | 524.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 5c | 502.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 58c | 476.18$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.64 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 5c | 452.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.83 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 20c | 251.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.53 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 21c | 241.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 44c | 220.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 13c | 206.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 130.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed No | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 79c | 104.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…d88abacked Yes | 69c | 95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 21c | 93.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 21c | 78.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 40c | 74.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed No | 27c | 73.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 69.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…60c5backed No | 65c | 47.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 64c | 46.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed No | 75c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.