Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf171e88a2b109b329575feb6a535db5457309a3f867a6cbbb08732ce58d9cc6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,950 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 58c | 1,050$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.04 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 994.4$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.65 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed Yes | 8c | 256.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 43c | 249.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 43c | 200.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…c4d7backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 56c | 195.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 56c | 183.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 42c | 149.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…125bbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes | 43c | 98.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 40c | 96.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed No | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed No | 72c | 91.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 43c | 87.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 43c | 75.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 42c | 62.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…c796backed No | 60c | 48.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…68edbacked No | 57c | 37.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…65bdbacked Yes | 44c | 36.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 56c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…318bbacked No | 56c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 9?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.