Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c4c041e51420c23c5234ab36cbe8cb2d6c4dbb2e41febd1cedb44d5c37a415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04cc…d47fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,134$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…849abacked No | 68c | 444.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 9c | 370.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…2713backed No | 56c | 342$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…4161backed No | 56c | 307$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…3237backed No | 56c | 306$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…8820backed No | 56c | 294$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…2a1dbacked Yes | 44c | 281$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…333fbacked Yes | 44c | 280$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3184…7f41backed Yes | 44c | 273$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4837…41fdbacked No | 69c | 259$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +281.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…f8c5backed Yes | 44c | 258$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…aea4backed No | 69c | 252$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 249.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…b7f6backed No | 69c | 247$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…3fdfbacked No | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed Yes | 33c | 234.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…f7d9backed No | 56c | 232$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 35c | 224.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a76…5a43backed Yes | 44c | 223$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…1b9cbacked No | 68c | 221$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…555ebacked No | 56c | 219$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…aaf4backed No | 69c | 214$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ce…b8a7backed No | 69c | 208$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…e037backed No | 69c | 207$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a20backed Yes | 44c | 198$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…cdf9backed No | 69c | 195$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 17c | 190.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…7615backed Yes | 44c | 187$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27d…50d5backed Yes | 25c | 174$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 24c | 173.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e0…3ea9backed Yes | 25c | 169$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7e…2307backed Yes | 31c | 153$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…5de0backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5306…6729backed Yes | 25c | 147$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…b8c4backed Yes | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…d7aebacked Yes | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Yes | 24c | 133.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…2766backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4e…a573backed Yes | 31c | 117$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…12c3backed Yes | 25c | 113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…b895backed Yes | 31c | 108$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757e…ac6cbacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…d7b7backed Yes | 31c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 27c | 85.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…4ab7backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 17?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 17?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.