Earnings · resolved market
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a09076d4eca529052cdb86a4537dd95970d5c4c7062669c97b6438fcd99dde3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,954 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe88…d285backed No | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 2c | 5,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…c052backed No | 5c | 4,809$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 3c | 3,699$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 3c | 3,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 2c | 3,217$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 3c | 3,172$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,395$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…8709backed No | 4c | 2,375$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…94fbbacked No | 3c | 1,683$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…97d3backed No | 4c | 1,116$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 1,062$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 3cpaid | +410.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,014$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 4c | 753.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 2c | 730.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed No | 2c | 665.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…101abacked No | 4c | 600.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 2c | 568.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 5c | 514$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 2c | 512.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…6037backed No | 3c | 487.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…7d4bbacked No | 4c | 483.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 3c | 477.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 3c | 475.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…b2eebacked No | 3c | 428.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 3c | 407.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 3c | 392.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 378.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 7c | 354.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 3c | 334.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.