TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc79f…e3fe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
169
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT258%2 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.04
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.5
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.36
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.67
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.24
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.1
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.14
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.83
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.14
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.65
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.92
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.82
Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.93
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.85
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.37
Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?backed GOP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.31
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
All 25 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.65
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.8
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+365.1%+$78.5
Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.23
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.35
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.48
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+439.5%+$189.99
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.36
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.07
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.53
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.26
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.09
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.87
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.04
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.85
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.55
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.24
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$53.3
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.66
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.7
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$25.5
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$15.22
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.03
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.74
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.5
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.11
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.65
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+682.5%+$485.26
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+862%+$94.5
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.01
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.39
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.86
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.32
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2010%2 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-87.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.16
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.08
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.15
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.66
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.93
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.96
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.92
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.51
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.63
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$3.18
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.93
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.4
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.78
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.55
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$8.6
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.95
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.11
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.32
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.78
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.61
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.1
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+809.1%+$89
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$34.3
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$65.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+117.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.95
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.77
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$186
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$116.33
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.32
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.44
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.17
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.83
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.47
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.34
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.26
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.69
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.02
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+249.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+170.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+441.2%+$63.91
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.