Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64007c00b33d841674311954d254b409f98c1f165dd484a4afef73f974334e42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 15,303$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…9b11backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…25e8backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,279$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 3,041$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.24 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 2,901$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.03 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 31c | 2,197$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.56 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 29c | 1,884$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.06 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,856$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed No | 4c | 1,250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 17c | 1,225$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 1,204$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.28 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,117$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.5 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 18c | 999.72$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.99 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…db54backed No | 2c | 937.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 861.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 841.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.08 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 3c | 636.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 50c | 614.78$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.9 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 16c | 543.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.99 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…2255backed Yes | 10c | 476.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.82 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 12c | 472.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.07 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 32c | 381.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.45 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 12c | 348$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 59c | 337.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…a4c8backed Yes | 30c | 336.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 21c | 333.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.79 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 34c | 315.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.87 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…7d5abacked Yes | 48c | 301.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 7c | 296.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.17 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 284.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 266.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 258.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 247$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.23 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 238.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 221.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…107abacked No | 73c | 218$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…e40cbacked No | 58c | 216.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 205.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…bcf4backed Yes | 50c | 200.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…ea7ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 34c | 199.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…2230backed Yes | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…0157backed Yes | 53c | 177.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 173.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 49c | 170.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 19c | 150.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 59c | 149.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…ee7ebacked Yes | 35c | 148.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +241.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 71c | 139.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…0bdbbacked Yes | 19c | 133.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +380.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 76c | 121.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed Yes | 19c | 119.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…c634backed Yes | 53c | 118.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…fff3backed Yes | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 74c | 95.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed Yes | 18c | 89.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…e64ebacked Yes | 25c | 85.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 79c | 78.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 19c | 78.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 31c | 73.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b5b2backed Yes | 19c | 73.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 73.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 17c | 67.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 62c | 61.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…c45ebacked No | 68c | 59.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 52c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 62cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…3b17backed Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…52e3backed Yes | 27c | 52.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 64cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…8cd2backed No | 73c | 47.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…5180backed Yes | 43c | 46.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 67c | 45.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 45.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff45…f168backed Yes | 37c | 40.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 75c | 33.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…8510backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 43c | 29.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…803cbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.