TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b5f…11c5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
180
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 51 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT14325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 143 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,029.47
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.93
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$258
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$267.17
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+347.4%+$166.76
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$210
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$325
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$141.61
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$664Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$664.01
Showing 25 of 143 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,447Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$1,161.78
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,784Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+81.4%+$1,451.31
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$23.49
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$37.85
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$103
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.74
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$33.71
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$238
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.89
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$43.86
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$286
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$403.65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,009.78
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$220.26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.52
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.67
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$187.27
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$642Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$641.74
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.