TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef32…265cbacked No4c30,052$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.222138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c17,150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.452742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No24c6,258$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.9614228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes78c6,236$4,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.7215740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4727…5aa5backed No20c5,865$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ab…ee5cbacked Yes80c4,791$3,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.721050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed No9c4,252$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+46.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66d0…ea60backed No23c3,098$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed No17c2,981$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-81.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba69…6a43backed No1c2,940$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502f…d624backed No18c2,276$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked No1c2,250$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.65829.3%17 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No12c2,172$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.434234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c2,106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.785071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No13c2,020$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7912432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7280…0838backed No18c1,956$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3431154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fa8…36a2backed No13c1,862$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No6c1,754$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102161.9%13 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No11c1,671$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc28d…1773backed No20c1,513$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…ac0bbacked No25c1,500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+182.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked No11c1,441$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1627142.3%30 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9636…546abacked No13c1,318$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No2c1,305$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.11469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c1,300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4422…5362backed No10c1,264$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.582619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffb6…c52dbacked No12c1,245$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.741080%8 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+115.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x02ae…bad5backed No14c1,100$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.82138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c1,093$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.164625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ee…f8fabacked No5c1,078$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c43…f964backed No2c1,077$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No28c1,071$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30424759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e9…1bf3backed No14c1,064$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.94425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…9febbacked No16c1,046$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed No19c1,005$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.15743.9%25 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x915f…aba1backed No5c998.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No10c945.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.346355.6%35 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b57…6ba9backed No12c812.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+64%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed No11c809.47$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.744242.9%18 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No6c798.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked No17c783.55$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f0…7ab9backed No14c708.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes78c699.88$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.475736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d3…33bcbacked No9c697.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.821612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes79c632.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2833337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b8c…4df4backed Yes80c630.12$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0d…8b59backed No18c556.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e93…f9bfbacked No4c519.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked Yes79c509.98$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.92763%17 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes73c509.48$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6421631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No11c506.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.928827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x725a…5cafbacked No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+128.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes74c497.92$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.465954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3876…df8ebacked No16c487.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fb…12cebacked No4c487.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa955…4b3dbacked No13c483$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x375c…3532backed No11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3344…cabcbacked No22c450$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+194%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3de…78ddbacked No15c443.38$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.033125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…679ebacked No21c441.67$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No15c437.19$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0936035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29b1…241ebacked No9c434.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf2…21c3backed No17c430.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8081…bfa9backed No27c422.73$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed No17c416.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.742015%3 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc250…4fafbacked No25c407.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+52.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4159…a9a0backed No13c399.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+35.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e71…f97bbacked No11c399.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d3…5122backed No15c393.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0199…5ffbbacked No13c387.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492548%12 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No8c381.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.553221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No13c379.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6518135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes79c378.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.679040%36 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b50…9e9ebacked No27c374.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No5c370.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5711320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb96e…e3d8backed No16c369.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.60per pick23cpaid+430.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked No10c350$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3434…ce8dbacked No17c340.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.941020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7690…c04fbacked No10c337.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked No19c334.65$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed No16c316.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff9…bbb4backed No13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1c…8d4dbacked No17c307.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed No8c300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cf…ce7bbacked No16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No4c293.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.794136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed9…11f0backed No16c292.84$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf878…c978backed No15c291.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-82%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No11c286.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.34219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55dc…78f3backed No17c283.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe171…9738backed No12c280$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47cb…b593backed No13c279.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8719…16a2backed No17c274.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed Yes76c270.98$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9126756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No19c262.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.015540%22 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc28e…a473backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c60…c9bebacked No20c221.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No8c207$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.585632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked No5c200.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4412441.1%51 W · 73 L-14.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.