Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44cecbb54b9eae2fa8848d02c74d616dffaaa42eab25f3717b651f090f233368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 4c | 30,052$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 17,150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 24c | 6,258$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.96 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 78c | 6,236$4,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.72 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…5aa5backed No | 20c | 5,865$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…ee5cbacked Yes | 80c | 4,791$3,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed No | 9c | 4,252$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66d0…ea60backed No | 23c | 3,098$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed No | 17c | 2,981$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…6a43backed No | 1c | 2,940$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502f…d624backed No | 18c | 2,276$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 1c | 2,250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 2,172$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 2,020$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.79 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0838backed No | 18c | 1,956$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…36a2backed No | 13c | 1,862$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 6c | 1,754$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 1,671$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 20c | 1,513$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…ac0bbacked No | 25c | 1,500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 11c | 1,441$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…546abacked No | 13c | 1,318$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 2c | 1,305$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5362backed No | 10c | 1,264$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…c52dbacked No | 12c | 1,245$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 14c | 1,100$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 1,093$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…f8fabacked No | 5c | 1,078$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c43…f964backed No | 2c | 1,077$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 28c | 1,071$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…1bf3backed No | 14c | 1,064$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…9febbacked No | 16c | 1,046$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 19c | 1,005$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x915f…aba1backed No | 5c | 998.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 10c | 945.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…6ba9backed No | 12c | 812.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 11c | 809.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 798.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…94bbbacked No | 17c | 783.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…7ab9backed No | 14c | 708.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 78c | 699.88$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.47 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…33bcbacked No | 9c | 697.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 79c | 632.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8c…4df4backed Yes | 80c | 630.12$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0d…8b59backed No | 18c | 556.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…f9bfbacked No | 4c | 519.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 79c | 509.98$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 73c | 509.48$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 11c | 506.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…5cafbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 74c | 497.92$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3876…df8ebacked No | 16c | 487.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fb…12cebacked No | 4c | 487.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…4b3dbacked No | 13c | 483$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375c…3532backed No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked No | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…78ddbacked No | 15c | 443.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 21c | 441.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 15c | 437.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…241ebacked No | 9c | 434.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…21c3backed No | 17c | 430.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…bfa9backed No | 27c | 422.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 17c | 416.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked No | 25c | 407.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…a9a0backed No | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…f97bbacked No | 11c | 399.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed No | 15c | 393.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked No | 13c | 387.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 8c | 381.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 13c | 379.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 79c | 378.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b50…9e9ebacked No | 27c | 374.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 370.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb96e…e3d8backed No | 16c | 369.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.60per pick | 23cpaid | +430.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 10c | 350$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3434…ce8dbacked No | 17c | 340.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…c04fbacked No | 10c | 337.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked No | 19c | 334.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed No | 16c | 316.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…bbb4backed No | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…8d4dbacked No | 17c | 307.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…ce7bbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 293.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed9…11f0backed No | 16c | 292.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…c978backed No | 15c | 291.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 11c | 286.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…78f3backed No | 17c | 283.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe171…9738backed No | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…b593backed No | 13c | 279.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8719…16a2backed No | 17c | 274.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 76c | 270.98$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 19c | 262.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28e…a473backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…c9bebacked No | 20c | 221.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 8c | 207$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…9c4ebacked No | 5c | 200.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.