TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa7fe…1f3e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
568
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT21631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 216 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.95
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.86
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+98.7%+$60.5
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$38.06
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+837.5%+$175.77
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.66
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.53
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.29
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$56.36
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$52.67
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$67.6
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$103.08
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,385Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+40.6%+$562.78
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.37
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.2
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.06
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$18
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+137.9%+$124.69
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.87
Showing 25 of 216 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT9740.2%39 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+100.1%+$19.01
Will White House post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$20.87
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$94.99
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$74.39
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.08
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.22
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$55.4
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$111.56
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.72
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.62
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.53
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.47
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$7.9
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$15.48
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.08
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.79
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+102.9%+$83.38
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.72
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Apollo" during NASA news conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$23.78
Will anyone say "Space Force" during NASA news conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+249.7%+$35.7
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.73
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.65
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.54
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.54
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.49
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.18
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.29
Will Elon Musk testify against Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$163.61
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$17.18
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.22
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.94
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+484.8%+$63
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.64
Will the World Cup Final national anthem last at least 150 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.72
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$18.4
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$32
Will the announcers say "Hand of God" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.6
Will the announcers say "Corner" 22+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will the announcers say "Back-to-back" or "Back to Back" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$15.6
Will the announcers say "Goal" 75+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.54
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the France vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.8
Will the announcers say "Convert" during the Argentina vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.38
Will the announcers say "Suspension" or "Suspended" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+25%+$14
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will the announcers say "USA" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$23
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+123.9%+$16.6
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$15.22
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.96
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+314.9%+$91.08
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+189.5%+$70.84
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.41
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.98
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$16.49
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.37
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.92
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$49.76
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$21
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.82
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+455.7%+$227.81
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.64
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.09
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.47
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "God" 5+ times during President Curtis E4 S1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$11.66
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will anyone say "Storm" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.3
Will anyone say "Baseball" during Rick and Morty E10 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$16.22
Will anyone say "Raven" during House of the Dragon E3 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.46
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.95
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.94
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.53
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.96
Will "The Drama" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
Will "The Drama" score at least 77 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$90
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.04
Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$18.01
Oscars Bingobacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$12.32
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+105.3%+$21.8
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$19.41
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.06
Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$10.83
Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+156.4%+$26.31
Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10.59
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$38.8
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$13.25
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2025%5 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.71
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.77
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.02
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,500 and 7,000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.14
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,000 and 6,500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.53
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 30 be between 5,000 and 5,500?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.63
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.08
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 30 be less than 5,000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$283.21
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be less than 6,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+457.5%+$137.07
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 26 be between 5,000 and 5,500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.87
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 26 be less than 3,000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$4.45
Will less than 8000 US flights be delayed on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$47.52
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$71
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$18.8
Will Mamdani say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.61
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+122.2%+$27.5
All 20 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.58
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.5
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.25
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+86.8%+$22.32
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$56.77
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$21.42
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$26.58
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.59
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.45
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.77
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.85
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$23.85
NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$132.21
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+317.5%+$57.48
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.58
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+265.7%+$117.4
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.6
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.06
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$13.57
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+93.4%+$222.63
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.81
Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.36
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.14
Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.72
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+137.7%+$35.95
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+43%+$4.93
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 16 picks, newest first.
Earningslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Klarna say "Walmart" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$16.5
Will Home Depot say "Customer" 20+ times during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.78
Will SpaceX say "Tesla" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$30.8
Will AMD say "China" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Will Spotify say "Fitness" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$25.2
Will Spotify say "Customer" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.92
Will Palantir say "Warp Speed" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.6
Will Palantir say "Insurance" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will the earnings call not air?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$20
Will Boeing say "Iran" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will PayPal say "Users" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.72
Will Verizon say "Integration" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Will Netflix say "User" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Will Netflix say "World Cup" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
All 16 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.