TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,180,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,211,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,180,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5297…7b99backed Yes0c2,207,004$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes0c1,382,642$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes0c1,008,000$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4732123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes0c665,622$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.8315124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes0c526,972$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes0c340,749$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes1c300,800$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.481816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…eab9backed Yes0c238,118$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de6…03d2backed Yes0c227,931$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes0c221,529$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.381020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce0…59d5backed Yes0c198,922$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64b…5ec2backed Yes1c179,371$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c155,556$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.111216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c9…e4b3backed Yes0c138,670$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ef…f569backed Yes0c105,133$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82fd…deb1backed Yes0c102,688$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe992…fae7backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…a568backed Yes2c98,511$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b6…554ebacked Yes0c94,575$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cc…da09backed Yes1c91,580$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c23…51a0backed Yes0c90,440$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes0c87,395$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes17c82,569$14,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,050.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd0…8387backed Yes1c72,217$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb59…0f16backed Yes1c70,000$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e4…a2b8backed Yes0c68,560$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Yes0c66,015$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa641…7ec8backed Yes1c62,461$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c79…a6d3backed Yes0c59,093$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed Yes1c51,972$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff1…7234backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes0c50,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…ed4fbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes1c49,558$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0911538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76ce…f48bbacked Yes0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ad…89e8backed Yes0c47,957$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa76a…2986backed Yes1c47,067$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b14…ca53backed Yes0c43,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cfb…152ebacked Yes0c43,580$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes10c42,982$4,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,258.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa651…1fd0backed Yes0c42,667$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa222…8528backed Yes0c38,587$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d5…3800backed Yes0c37,440$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes2c34,053$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes7c33,375$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.536546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c228backed Yes0c32,245$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes2c31,033$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.28520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes10c29,559$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,821.574346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777e…f226backed Yes0c26,727$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b9…91dcbacked Yes0c26,667$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0dd…341dbacked Yes1c25,140$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes1c24,976$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes29c24,949$7,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,354.835042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e81…258dbacked Yes0c24,033$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f2c…e2fdbacked Yes0c23,559$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes4c23,483$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f1…4c93backed Yes0c23,050$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes0c21,548$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Yes1c20,818$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.39425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes2c20,718$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+302.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes0c20,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked Yes1c19,880$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa583…41edbacked Yes0c19,650$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e3…3239backed Yes1c18,787$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7ec8backed Yes16c18,633$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca5d…6ed9backed Yes0c18,490$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc097…6b91backed Yes0c18,105$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e34…36b1backed Yes2c17,100$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3069…83cdbacked Yes0c17,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes1c16,878$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.79616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+103.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes1c16,151$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-77.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cd…2ba0backed Yes8c16,031$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a67…e0fabacked Yes1c15,893$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a3…8ea4backed Yes0c15,840$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes1c15,398$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes1c15,224$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5559…46a7backed Yes0c15,102$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba2e…c312backed Yes1c15,022$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaa…f0e4backed Yes0c13,336$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes8c12,848$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.7318033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b79…2618backed Yes1c12,807$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes4c12,346$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.051010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-87.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes2c12,321$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes2c12,267$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb439…1dacbacked Yes0c12,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe046…fbf2backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2e…79bfbacked Yes1c11,597$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes1c11,351$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes2c11,312$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff3…6d83backed Yes1c11,210$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes0c11,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes2c11,078$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes0c10,730$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes0c10,709$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+213.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9689…b263backed Yes2c10,691$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.