TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb2ef…90e2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Daniel Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Marcin Tybura win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Milos Janicic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Santiago Ponzinibbio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tyrell Fortune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$254.55
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Steve Erceg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Dustin Jacoby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$144.83
UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ismael Bonfim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Rafael Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$192.16
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+498.3%+$249.14
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$308.41
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$798Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+400%+$3,191.6
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.32per pick23cpaid+215.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+149.5%+$411.03
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+592%+$1,651.81
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.27
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+138.2%+$138.22
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,438.5%+$935
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$383.41
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$976.47
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+574.1%+$1,176.85
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$110.96
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$140.14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$78.25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+74.9%+$358.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+215.7%+$203.89
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.53
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$185.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$160.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,360Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$879.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$814Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$814
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.