Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,621,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,306,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,621,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,679 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 60c | 481,442$290,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290,412.26 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 25c | 389,091$97,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291,812.65 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 79c | 358,909$281,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281,923.92 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d010backed Yes | 16c | 341,880$53,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288,795.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +425%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 77c | 296,852$228,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228,383.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -82%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 20c | 250,448$49,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201,345.43 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…30febacked Yes | 17c | 235,294$40,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195,293.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +680.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 19c | 225,716$43,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182,004.84 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…6829backed Yes | 21c | 216,348$45,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170,976.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed Yes | 19c | 196,162$38,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157,961.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 18c | 189,474$34,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154,539.04 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 78c | 178,093$139,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139,589.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 1c | 172,987$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 13c | 167,655$22,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145,183.92 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 29c | 155,171$45,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,877.58 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 21c | 151,530$32,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119,311.62 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 42c | 151,096$63,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,886.69 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 78c | 143,084$111,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111,665.11 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 27c | 133,137$35,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,265.7 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 132,419$52,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,352.68 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…8d62backed Yes | 60c | 125,556$75,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,741.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 57c | 125,149$70,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,839.29 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…9c08backed Yes | 26c | 120,179$31,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,422.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 14c | 117,000$16,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,350 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 15c | 116,519$17,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,154.82 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 72c | 113,163$81,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,215.45 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826e…b6b5backed Yes | 18c | 113,050$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93,049.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +633.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…971bbacked Yes | 22c | 110,980$24,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,610.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +291.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 18c | 107,714$19,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,432.49 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 77c | 106,428$82,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,286.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 18c | 100,000$17,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,460.1 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 19c | 98,313$18,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,088.58 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c63…96e9backed Yes | 21c | 93,828$19,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,079.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 24c | 93,239$22,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,530.41 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 75c | 92,261$69,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,333.42 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 30c | 91,413$27,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,592.21 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…cd81backed No | 77c | 90,066$69,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,647.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 23c | 88,520$20,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,470.13 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 74c | 86,976$64,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,184.54 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 74c | 84,194$62,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,175.93 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 22c | 84,022$18,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,716.67 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed Yes | 40c | 83,112$33,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,632.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.61per pick | 19cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…34c3backed Yes | 16c | 81,225$12,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,243.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 75,000$14,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,499.89 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 15c | 74,262$11,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,231.32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 69c | 73,576$51,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,058.14 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302d…6d6fbacked Yes | 45c | 71,238$32,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,031.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 70c | 71,071$49,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,567.23 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…84c6backed No | 0c | 70,829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…5ebdbacked No | 72c | 70,376$50,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,743.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed Yes | 19c | 68,887$13,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,721.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 68c | 65,396$44,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,461.77 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 35c | 64,291$22,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,817 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 21c | 63,623$13,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,407.26 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…9de4backed No | 76c | 62,081$47,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,336.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 80c | 61,983$49,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,435.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…e29dbacked Yes | 17c | 61,904$10,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,594.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 18c | 59,050$10,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,287.77 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 30c | 59,020$17,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,227.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 14c | 56,871$8,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,709.94 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…ebd9backed No | 69c | 56,773$39,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,379.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 9c | 55,555$4,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,787.69 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…45ffbacked Yes | 25c | 55,216$13,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,274.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…3932backed Yes | 26c | 55,000$14,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,699.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes | 17c | 54,357$9,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,116.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 54,130$8,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,706.44 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 4c | 53,900$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.14 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…96a8backed Yes | 19c | 52,768$9,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,793.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 17c | 52,480$8,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,682.08 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 12c | 51,618$6,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,381.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 1c | 51,100$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 75c | 51,079$38,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,556.15 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f8…0856backed Yes | 12c | 50,513$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,512.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +389.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes | 14c | 50,353$6,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,541.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +409.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 17c | 50,281$8,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,710.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…2276backed Yes | 20c | 50,053$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,053.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed No | 78c | 49,952$38,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,963.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 4c | 48,577$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.89 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 70c | 47,390$33,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,146.72 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…c9fcbacked No | 0c | 45,711$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Yes | 27c | 45,000$12,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,854.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 8c | 44,929$3,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,334.42 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…6868backed No | 79c | 44,373$34,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,957.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 76c | 44,250$33,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,705.98 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…1c2ebacked No | 44c | 44,000$19,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,345.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 16c | 43,027$6,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,044.84 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 42,478$26,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,580.33 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…9c65backed Yes | 16c | 42,315$6,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,500.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +210.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 26c | 42,006$11,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,995.24 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 50c | 41,920$20,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,153.27 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 17c | 41,533$7,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,433.79 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 17c | 40,763$6,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,821.82 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 76c | 40,600$31,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,026.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…94d0backed Yes | 20c | 40,034$7,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,050.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed No | 76c | 40,000$30,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,501.61 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 68c | 39,768$26,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,924.66 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…62fabacked Yes | 18c | 39,612$7,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,557.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 70c | 39,053$27,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,767.26 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 62c | 38,810$24,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,218.64 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Yes | 18c | 38,312$7,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,250.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 13cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.