Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6bcb7da14ea576e5af25547dbd96f2bb24ac34e748e76aecff2ee9195dd1ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,375,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,534,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,375,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 6,352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 12c | 1,027,167$125,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125,257.76 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 2c | 889,358$15,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,200.69 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 76c | 776,210$587,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188,435.5 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 772,076$64,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,304.3 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 16c | 767,915$126,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126,607.51 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 24c | 720,036$169,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169,835.79 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…c3e0backed Yes | 6c | 507,815$29,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,359.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 19c | 454,174$87,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,895.36 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 23c | 439,483$99,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,356.1 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 11c | 374,306$41,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,148.28 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 1c | 357,748$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 7c | 349,303$23,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,472.96 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 17c | 313,341$52,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,360.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 5c | 300,806$15,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,870.66 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 286,935$51,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,827.14 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 4c | 272,247$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 9c | 250,000$21,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,700 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed Yes | 11c | 246,362$27,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d010backed Yes | 11c | 244,873$27,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,983.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +425%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 14c | 244,860$33,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,351.83 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 25c | 206,740$50,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,739.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2424…3b61backed Yes | 12c | 200,693$25,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,083.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…673fbacked No | 76c | 200,242$151,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,668.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 77c | 197,986$151,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,427.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 8c | 196,390$15,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,863.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 9c | 187,088$16,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,960.12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…fc67backed Yes | 18c | 184,985$32,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,659.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 8c | 170,747$12,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,809.68 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 25c | 168,574$42,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,599.09 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 30c | 166,879$50,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,139.66 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 28c | 165,299$46,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,583.61 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 162,517$17,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,950.13 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 30c | 160,002$47,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,264.73 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 5c | 158,743$7,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,597.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…b4adbacked Yes | 7c | 156,764$11,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,702.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +450.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…0ac8backed No | 78c | 156,302$121,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,959.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +94%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 28c | 148,225$41,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,021.76 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 12c | 141,697$17,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,389.47 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 10c | 132,618$13,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,710.31 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 21c | 129,385$26,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,566.49 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…aad0backed Yes | 6c | 129,252$8,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,326.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 22c | 129,011$28,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,505.78 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…bd99backed Yes | 8c | 128,474$9,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,882.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 13c | 127,968$17,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,011.93 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 9c | 126,038$11,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,728.04 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 6c | 125,327$7,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,143.56 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302d…6d6fbacked Yes | 8c | 118,236$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…b803backed Yes | 1c | 116,240$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.38 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 18c | 115,618$21,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,333.49 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…f6f5backed Yes | 12c | 115,053$13,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,966 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes | 15c | 114,324$16,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,694.01 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…a603backed No | 72c | 111,826$80,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,189.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 104,252$22,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,217.99 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 53c | 103,970$55,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,383.22 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 10c | 103,592$10,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,420.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa47…02f1backed Yes | 10c | 103,089$9,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,939.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…45ffbacked Yes | 8c | 100,926$7,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,658.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 100,000$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.28 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…56eabacked Yes | 3c | 100,000$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.01 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 30c | 98,719$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 13c | 96,179$12,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,580.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 76c | 95,000$71,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,100.86 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…780abacked Yes | 4c | 93,309$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…f90ebacked Yes | 9c | 91,845$8,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,479.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 24c | 90,578$21,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,390.59 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 58c | 88,239$51,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,006.33 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 14c | 87,739$12,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,283.47 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 2c | 86,791$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.51 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…34c3backed Yes | 8c | 86,787$6,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,936.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 5c | 86,774$4,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,191.18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 86,137$4,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,582.47 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed Yes | 12c | 85,489$9,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,852.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.61per pick | 19cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…f7a2backed Yes | 7c | 84,700$5,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,954.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 12c | 83,425$10,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,337.52 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 78c | 80,590$62,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,833.59 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 45c | 79,686$35,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,800.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed No | 75c | 78,346$59,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,298.03 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 47c | 75,701$35,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,392.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 73,804$12,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,276.38 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…9c08backed Yes | 13c | 73,500$9,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,830 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 15c | 72,971$10,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,628.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes | 11c | 71,941$8,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,122.89 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 14c | 71,717$10,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,190.36 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 23c | 71,187$16,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,387.3 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…8d62backed No | 73c | 70,529$51,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,937.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 22c | 70,509$15,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,463.85 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…44cebacked Yes | 1c | 70,100$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 69c | 68,666$47,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,223.15 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…ca82backed Yes | 13c | 67,754$8,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,958.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…fb70backed No | 73c | 67,651$49,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,307.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…bf69backed No | 71c | 67,584$47,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,846.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 79c | 66,686$52,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,707.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…5ebdbacked No | 68c | 66,296$44,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,538.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…94d0backed Yes | 10c | 66,207$6,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,852.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 9c | 65,491$5,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,994 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 9c | 65,045$5,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,852.12 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…d642backed Yes | 64c | 63,786$40,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,520.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…bbd3backed Yes | 5c | 63,695$3,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 12c | 63,398$7,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,906.75 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 10c | 63,323$6,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,134.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.