Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a8b5917a3bc25caf28784fddac39bc45a9f2fe4c63fbf4e3ac8684d8b757df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $419,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $415,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 42c | 36,342$15,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,166.7 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…914abacked No | 2c | 30,077$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 1cpaid | +2,400.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…0100backed No | 60c | 21,739$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 0c | 17,246$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ab44backed No | 1c | 13,953$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…9c08backed Yes | 40c | 13,698$5,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,194.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…4f08backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 60c | 10,000$5,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,982.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 3c | 9,224$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 50c | 8,889$4,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420.63 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 58c | 8,888$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180.03 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 42c | 7,488$3,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,170.9 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 52c | 7,318$3,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,798.22 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 53c | 6,571$3,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,507.87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 38c | 6,174$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.08 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c45…e5d4backed Yes | 59c | 4,822$2,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 51c | 4,808$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,345.96 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…66e8backed No | 11c | 4,300$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 40c | 4,204$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,539.5 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…00b1backed No | 61c | 4,202$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 49c | 4,007$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.41 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 7c | 3,800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 61c | 3,736$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.23 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…2864backed No | 3c | 3,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 29c | 3,128$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.73 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…0feebacked No | 1c | 2,925$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…8708backed No | 37c | 2,742$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 38c | 2,624$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.55 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 60c | 2,600$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.07 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…5664backed Yes | 42c | 2,550$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 59c | 2,294$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.8 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 75c | 2,268$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.58 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5eb…8015backed No | 56c | 2,213$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,200$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 5c | 2,100$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 62c | 2,100$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.92 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 61c | 2,017$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.37 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.99 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 47c | 1,931$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.65 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 1,845$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.15 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…ded3backed No | 43c | 1,750$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…9732backed Yes | 77c | 1,695$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes | 63c | 1,686$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…17babacked No | 60c | 1,643$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.72 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 49c | 1,600$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,541$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.72 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 2c | 1,532$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked No | 61c | 1,410$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.25 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d5…8ea4backed No | 1c | 1,379$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 54c | 1,354$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.84 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 51c | 1,321$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.95 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 50c | 1,318$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.34 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 9c | 1,314$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…9b82backed No | 1c | 1,306$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,219$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,207$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,204$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,201$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed No | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7408…db0dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +425.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…2524backed No | 9c | 1,154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 3c | 1,086$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65b…e257backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked Yes | 38c | 990.85$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +4.9wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +347.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 46c | 982.72$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.98 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 53c | 938.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked No | 49c | 937.42$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…9561backed No | 1c | 918.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed Yes | 59c | 900$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 877.57$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…114ebacked No | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 11c | 845$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 70c | 830.61$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.09 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc673…ef2bbacked No | 61c | 818.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 69c | 805.39$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 43c | 801.53$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 6c | 792.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 41c | 775.88$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.31 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…fdb1backed No | 13c | 760$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…17d0backed No | 59c | 730$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 725$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 710$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 48c | 698.15$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.41 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…51ddbacked Yes | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 53c | 671.08$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.63 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 78c | 607.13$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 57c | 601.78$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…2781backed Yes | 56c | 588$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +330.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…5e3bbacked No | 34c | 569$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 37c | 560.54$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.14 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 45c | 524.13$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.39 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.