TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x07cf…a9fa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
421
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Lol, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT32716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 327 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+5,881%+$2,012.76
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.92
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$445.75
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.09
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.79
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.68
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.21
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.01
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.23
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.15
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.03
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.42
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.59
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.27
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+820.7%+$712.95
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$99.49
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.63
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+688.1%+$336.14
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.56
Showing 25 of 327 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT3327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$448Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+34%+$152.2
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.95
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.99
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.8
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.94
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$11.06
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.03
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.84
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+180.4%+$192.99
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$737Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$737.18
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$657Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$255.11
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.72
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.21
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+60%+$149.65
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$793Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+27.8%+$220.52
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$77.08
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$94
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Lol — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+1,339.5%+$697.89
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffsbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.1
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.02
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.89
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$52.23
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$9.5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$43.89
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+100%+$10
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+132.6%+$17.1
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked DN Freecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+257.1%+$72
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winnerbacked DN Freecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+84.3%+$59
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$89.49
LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+52.4%+$17.2
LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winnerbacked DN Freecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$20
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20.7
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$98.35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$46.68
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.42
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20.8
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+63.9%+$10.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$24.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+809.1%+$89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.