Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,726,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,752,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,726,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,883 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8afa…adb6backed No | 79c | 613,804$483,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483,977.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 71c | 435,021$309,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309,821.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 59c | 434,772$258,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258,167.53 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…bf69backed No | 63c | 427,763$271,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271,444.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 29c | 365,447$104,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260,920.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…9c08backed Yes | 36c | 306,692$109,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197,205.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 55c | 265,458$146,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146,897.16 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 55c | 244,130$134,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,999 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 39c | 225,482$87,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137,959.07 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 210,271$131,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131,293.16 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3355…a126backed Yes | 32c | 202,851$64,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138,744.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 32c | 190,739$61,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128,900.33 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 58c | 189,912$110,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,732 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 30c | 180,500$53,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,063.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 57c | 174,113$99,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,156.93 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 32c | 173,640$56,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117,223.25 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 31c | 164,042$50,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,459.86 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 47c | 161,483$75,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,188.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes | 30c | 157,940$47,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,328.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 19c | 156,647$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,646.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 63c | 155,766$98,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,860.68 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 63c | 146,751$92,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,352.61 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…6b20backed No | 55c | 145,685$80,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,506.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 29c | 137,874$39,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,018.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 72c | 118,774$85,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,932.08 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed Yes | 32c | 118,774$37,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,025.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 48c | 116,124$56,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,967.17 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 48c | 114,922$54,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,301 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 54c | 111,525$60,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,445.29 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 59c | 111,508$65,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,642.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…9de4backed No | 63c | 110,685$69,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,705.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x826e…b6b5backed Yes | 39c | 105,974$40,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,166.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +633.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 34c | 104,016$35,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,335.36 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 42c | 101,743$42,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,070.85 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e7…cfb4backed No | 1c | 100,659$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 68c | 97,911$66,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,520.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 23c | 97,100$22,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,945.73 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…d640backed Yes | 36c | 93,354$33,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,604.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…a7c8backed No | 0c | 88,861$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +238%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 33c | 86,112$28,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,638.99 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 50c | 79,728$40,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,469.88 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 43c | 78,414$33,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,428.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 44c | 78,055$33,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,077.29 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 42c | 75,773$31,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,830.02 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 58c | 75,079$43,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,723.73 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 43c | 71,688$30,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,840.22 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 50c | 70,512$35,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,346.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…76c1backed Yes | 38c | 69,410$26,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,887.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 65c | 68,698$44,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,676.83 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…e09fbacked Yes | 28c | 65,154$18,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,826.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 56c | 64,064$35,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,340.67 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…8708backed No | 19c | 63,357$11,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,879.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…128ebacked No | 76c | 62,482$47,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,764.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 0c | 62,270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 53c | 60,678$31,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,784.69 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 62c | 58,771$36,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,603.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -82%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 58c | 55,612$32,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,253.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 31c | 55,469$16,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,534.18 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 62c | 54,660$33,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,919.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…c9fcbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…30febacked Yes | 31c | 49,786$15,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,461.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +680.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 0c | 48,147$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed No | 35c | 48,075$16,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,949.37 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 51c | 47,414$24,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,298.52 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 43c | 47,103$20,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,012.77 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 62c | 46,664$28,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,876.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 63c | 46,392$29,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,314.42 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5f…abefbacked Yes | 43c | 45,808$19,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,983.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 28c | 45,307$12,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,683.19 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 26c | 44,016$11,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,532.11 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…da63backed No | 71c | 42,110$29,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,934.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 31c | 42,063$13,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,921.03 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 31c | 42,060$13,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,951.86 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…0929backed No | 67c | 40,529$27,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,128.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 67cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…1160backed No | 72c | 40,445$29,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,256.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 39c | 40,268$15,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,507.57 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…5184backed No | 44c | 40,231$17,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,508.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 53c | 39,839$21,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,027.67 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 30c | 38,410$11,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,980.16 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 37c | 37,729$13,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,890.57 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…6829backed Yes | 40c | 37,606$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,606.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 71c | 37,277$26,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,526.78 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 26c | 37,055$9,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,587.44 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked No | 47c | 36,691$17,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,259.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes | 58c | 35,059$20,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,596.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…0ac8backed Yes | 35c | 34,904$12,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,862.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +94%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 37c | 34,520$12,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,678.59 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 31c | 34,303$10,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,676.89 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 63c | 34,255$21,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,443.07 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…93a8backed No | 59c | 33,968$19,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,936.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…09f8backed No | 7c | 33,530$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 43c | 33,278$14,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,018.9 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 62c | 32,622$20,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,129.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 38c | 32,262$12,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,092.7 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 65c | 31,920$20,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,644.28 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 42c | 31,646$13,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,452.19 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 44c | 31,551$13,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,645.17 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed No | 67c | 31,472$20,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,930.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…167ebacked No | 68c | 31,000$21,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,080 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…0534backed Yes | 64c | 30,250$19,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,778.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.